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What will the jobs report tell us? The build-up to the Jackson Hole symposium last week was quite tense. Investors have spent the weeks since the July Federal Reserve meeting celebrating the "dovish pivot" and then in the days leading up to Powell's speech, doubt started to creep in.

26-08-2022 15:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 369)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. This week they discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, US economic data and the UK energy price cap.

26-08-2022 14:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

Jackson Hole Reaction: No doves allowed, ECB hike expectations rise, Oil slumps, Gold lower, Bitcoin dips below $21k

US stocks declined after Fed Chair Powell delivered a short and clear message that they will continue to raise rates and hold them at a higher level until they are confident inflation is under control. The market reaction was for rate cuts to get priced further out and a minimal boost for additional pricing to get done before the end of the year. Powell is not budging on having restrictive policy and that should mean the economy will steadily weaken going forward. Powell drove home the point t

26-08-2022 11:19 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro edges up to parity ahead of Powell

EUR/USD has edged higher today and is trading at the parity line. It could be a volatile North American session, with Fed Chair Powell addressing the Jackson Hole central bank conference. German consumer confidence slides Germany posted another soft release today in what has been a miserable week.

26-08-2022 07:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil stable at $100, gold eyes Powell speech

Oil steadies around $100 Oil prices are a little higher, with Brent hovering around $100 a barrel and WTI above $93. It's been well supported this week by comments from Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, who claimed there's a disconnect between market pricing and fundamentals, suggesting OPEC+ could cut output in the future. Suddenly the prospect of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, or a global growth slowdown, isn't quite the bearish development for oil that many hoped.

26-08-2022 06:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

All eyes on Jackson Hole

The day we've all been waiting for has finally arrived as Jerome Powell prepares for his keynote speech at Jackson Hole. I have no doubt Powell will have chosen his words very carefully today, all too aware of the consequences of even the smallest deviation in his intended message. It's a little ridiculous that markets put so much weight on such things but that is the situation we are in and I expect the Fed Chair will be very clear in the message he wants to send. The difficulty for Powell stem

26-08-2022 06:45 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY hits 137, Powell speech eyed

The Japanese yen is in negative territory today. USD/JPY is trading at 136.90 in the European session, up 0.34%. It has been a relatively quiet week for the yen, which is trading exactly where it started the week, around the 137 line.

26-08-2022 05:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Bounces back after Saudi warning

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest developments in the oil market and the impact they've had on the price.

25-08-2022 15:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil seesaws, gold edges higher

Oil Crude prices initially edged higher as we get further reports that OPEC+ is seriously considering lowering production and after the latest round of US economic data and Fed speak suggests the economy is still in a good position to handle more rate increases. Oil will start to form a key trading range until Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.

25-08-2022 13:12 GMT by Edward Moya

Jackson Hole Eve, US data, Chinese ADRs rally, Bitcoin above $21k

'Twas the night before Jackson Hole, when all through the house not a creature was trading, not even a mouse Some stocks were rallying but with cautious care In hopes a dovish hint from Fed Powell would be there' US stocks are rising ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson hole speech as investor worries ease that the Fed will make a policy mistake with their battle with inflation. Everyone remembers Powell’s mistake about sticking to the inflation is transitory at last year’s Jackson Hole Symposium

25-08-2022 13:05 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD near parity, Powell speech next

The euro has posted gains today and briefly punched above the symbolic parity line. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 0.9978, up 0.11%. German business confidence dips It seems that whatever angle you examine Germany's economy, things are not looking good.

25-08-2022 11:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil climbs above $100, gold finds support

Saudi Arabia successfully talks up oil Brent crude is back above $100 on Thursday, following the verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia this week. The suggestion that the price did not align with fundamentals and that OPEC+ could cut output has clearly had the desired effect.

25-08-2022 06:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

Focus on central banks

A slightly positive start to trading on Thursday as traders eye ECB minutes early afternoon and the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. The minutes will likely provide further detail on the reasoning behind a more aggressive start to tightening than the central bank had communicated to the markets and perhaps provide further insight into what we can expect at the upcoming meeting as a result of that move. The issue with its decision was not that it was wrong to hike by so much - I'm sure most w

25-08-2022 06:52 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZ dollar soars on China stimulus plan

NZD/USD has climbed sharply today. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6247, up 0.95% on the day. China announces stimulus The New Zealand dollar received a welcome boost from China, which announced a 19-point policy package to stimulate economic growth.

25-08-2022 05:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil's outlook, gold steadies

Oil poised to rise Despite global recession fears, oil prices are poised to be supported as energy investments have been depressed. The tug-of-war between crude demand destruction and a plethora of drivers on why the oil market will remain tight should still suggest prices won’t fall much lower. Oil’s outlook still looks positive here as shale is not taking off, ESG constraints remain, and strong demand for refined product exports.

24-08-2022 14:05 GMT by Edward Moya

Waiting game ahead of Jackson Hole, King Dollar, bitcoin edges higher

US stocks are rising as Wall Street tries to end a three-day slide by buying up big-tech stocks. We are at an inflection point for the mega-cap trade as hedge funds position themselves for further weakness in bonds and a much weaker consumer as the economy slows. Today’s rebound is small and on light volume, which means most traders are playing the waiting game until Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech. All eyes on Powell It is hard to be aggressive with any positioning u

24-08-2022 14:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 368)

Jonny Hart discusses what is driving markets today with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York. This week they talk about the lead up to Jackson Hole, softening US economic data, oil markets, and cryptos.

24-08-2022 13:53 GMT by Edward Moya

NZ dollar slides below 62, retail sales next

The New Zealand dollar continues to show volatility this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6182, down 0.48%, erasing all of Tuesday's gains. New Zealand retail sales expected to rebound Later today, New Zealand releases retail sales for the second quarter.

24-08-2022 10:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil moves higher, gold under pressure

Bearish case severely weakened by Saudi comments Oil prices are higher again this morning, supported once more by reports that OPEC+ could consider cutting output. While this may simply be a case of Saudi Arabia talking up the price, for now, the prospect of the group taking such action effectively removes two of the biggest downside risks for prices. An Iran nuclear deal was explicitly referenced so if any deal is announced in the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see what the impact on t

24-08-2022 08:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

On the fence

A relatively slow session so far in the middle of the week, with the focus very much still on the Fed and interest rates ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium that kicks off tomorrow. It's interesting that the fear of what could be said is seemingly having a far greater impact on sentiment and the markets than what has actually been communicated in recent weeks. Investors have repeatedly turned a blind eye to Fed commentary since the last meeting which has enabled stock markets to recover a lot of

24-08-2022 08:43 GMT by Craig Erlam

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