All Articles

Markets Weekly Outlook - Tariffs, NFP and ECB Meeting on the Agenda

Tariffs have been the primary driver of market volatility. US economic data shows signs of a potential stall, with consumer spending down and inflation remaining high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are struggling, and the Fear and Greed index is in fear territory. Next week's focus includes potential US tariffs, China's Two Sessions meeting, and the ECB's interest rate decision.

28-02-2025 15:23 GMT by Zain Vawda

Canadian dollar eyes Canada's GDP

The Canadian dollar is calm in the European session, trading at 1.4438, up 0.02% on the day. Later today, Canada releases GDP and the US publishes the Core PCE Price Index. USD/CAD has rallied for five straight trading days, gaining 1.8% during that time and hitting a three-week high. Canada's GDP expected to rebound in January.

28-02-2025 06:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen declines as Tokyo Core CPI eases

The Japanese yen has extended its losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.39, up 0.40% on the day. Tokyo core CPI edges lower to 2.2%.

28-02-2025 05:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

PCE Preview and S&P 500 Forecast: US Economy, Inflation Fears, and Tariff Threats

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due Friday. Recent US economic data has been weaker than expected, leading to increased market fear. Tariff threats by President Trump have added to market concerns about inflation and global growth. Technically, the S&P 500 is in bearish territory, having broken key support levels.

27-02-2025 17:07 GMT by Zain Vawda

Japanese yen lower, Tokyo Core CPI next

The Japanese yen has posted losses on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.84, up 0.48% on the day. Tokyo core CPI expected to ease to 2.3% Inflation has been steadily moving higher in Japan and January's inflation data reflects the upward trend. The consumer price index climbed to 3.2%, a 19-month high, and the producer price index and the BoJ Core CPI both accelerated in January compared to a month earlier.

27-02-2025 12:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Dollar down on soft US consumer confidence, oil slide continues, bitcoin down again

Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world.

27-02-2025 07:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Swiss franc dips as Swiss GDP declines

The Swiss franc is down for a second straight trading day. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8980, up 0.38% on the day. Switzerland's GDP eases to 0.2% The Swiss economy slowed to 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 0.4% in Q3 and in line with expectations. This was the weakest expansion since Q2 2023. Construction weakened in the fourth quarter but manufacturing and exports rebounded from the previous quarter.

27-02-2025 07:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

BoJ Core CPI climbs to 2.2%, yen declines

The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.25, up 0.16% on the day. Japanese yen flexing muscles What is the best performing G-10 currency against the US dollar this year? Surprisingly, the Japanese yen is the winner, with gains of about 5% against the greenback. This is a remarkable turnaround from 2024, when the yen plunged 11.4% against the US dollar and sank to its lowest level in 38 years.

26-02-2025 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian CPI lower than expected, Australian dollar drops

The Australian dollar has declined by 0.37% on Wednesday and is trading at 0.6320 in the European session. AUD/USD is down for a fourth consecutive trading day and has lost 1.2% during that time. January inflation unchanged at 2.5% Australia’s consumer price index was unchanged at 2.5% y/y for a second straight month in January. This was below the market estimate of 2.6% but inflation stayed at its highest level since August 2024.

26-02-2025 06:06 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Outlook: Vulnerable for a major bearish breakdown below 93.65 key support

Revigorated US trade tariffs threat on Canada spark refresh weakness in commodities proxy currencies such as AUD. AUD/JPY may face further headwinds supported by a further narrowing of the 2-year yield spread premium between Australian and Japanese government bonds. A further risk-off in the major US stock indices may also trigger further weakness in the AUD/JPY. Watch the 93.65 potential major downside trigger level of the AUD/JPY.

26-02-2025 04:09 GMT by Kelvin Wong

European Union fires back, euro gains ground

The euro has gained ground on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0485, up 0.18%. On Monday, the euro climbed as high as 1.0527, its highest level this year. EU says will retaliate if US imposes tariffs US President Donald Trump tariff threat has many countries up in arms, including staunch allies of the US. The European Union has announced that if the US goes ahead with tariffs on European steel and aluminum, it will retaliate.

25-02-2025 12:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude Oil Price Update - 100-day MA Keeps Oil Under Pressure

Brent crude oil prices are under pressure due to new US sanctions on Iran, potential increases in Iraqi oil exports from Kurdistan. US Consumer confidence recorded its worst print in 3 years weighing on market sentiment. Technical analysis shows the 100-day moving average is acting as significant resistance around the 75.32 level for Brent crude oil.

25-02-2025 11:48 GMT by Zain Vawda

Australian dollar awaiting inflation data

The Australian dollar is steady after two straight losing trading days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6343, down 0.09% on the day. Australia's CPI expected to tick higher Australia releases the consumer price index for January on Wednesday. Inflation has been moving higher, as CPI accelerated in December to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% and its highest level since August. The market estimate for January stands at 2.6%.

25-02-2025 09:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Monetary Policy Divergence and FX Exchange Rate Impacts: EURCAD & AUDCAD Analysis

Talking Points ECB and BOC Monetary Policy Divergence - EURCAD Exchange Rate Fluctuations RBA and BOC Monetary Policy Divergence - AUDCAD Exchange Rate Fluctuations Canada and Australia Inflation Data and Interest Rate Expectations AUDCAD Technical Analysis: Trend Break and Support Following the inflation peak of 2022 and as central banks globally began raising interest rates, the global disinflation process has progressed at different paces for each economy.

25-02-2025 08:16 GMT by Moheb Hanna

USD/CAD Eyes Breakout as Tariff Deadline Approaches

● The US Dollar's recovery on tariff talk is causing the USD/CAD pair to bounce. ● The main events to watch out for this week are the US PCE data and Canadian GDP for Q4. ● A close above 1.43100 on the daily candle chart would signal a structural shift that could empower bulls. USD/CAD has enjoyed a bounce to start the week as the US Dollar eyes a recovery. The pair has been caught in a tight range since February 14, but does appear to be consolidating ahead of a potential breakout.

25-02-2025 08:07 GMT by Zain Vawda

Japanese yen steady as producer price inflation unchanged

The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.68, down 0.01% on the day. The yen has shown recent strength against the US dollar and gained 2% last week. On Monday, the yen strengthened to 148.84 per dollar, its strongest level this year.

25-02-2025 05:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold (XAU/USD) Retreats From Fresh All-Time Highs, Bulls Remain in Control

Gold is nearing the $3000/oz mark, potentially reaching it briefly before a pullback. Concerns about the stock market and a murky Fed outlook are driving investors towards gold. Key economic data releases this week include US GDP and PCE data. Most Read: Global Market Outlook 2025: Trends, Risks, and Opportunities for Traders Risk aversion persisted in the markets today, as the end of February draws to a close.

24-02-2025 12:10 GMT by Zain Vawda

Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Bulls got spooked by stagflation fears

The recent steep rise in the US 5-year breakeven inflation rate to 2.61%, a two-year high coupled with the unexpected contraction seen in the S&P Global flash US Services PMI for February has increased the odds of a stagflation environment. An increasingly less dovish monetary policy stance is likely to be adopted by the US Federal Reserve, in turn, tighten liquidity conditions that may trigger a medium-term negative feedback loop into the US stock market. Bearish technical elements in terms of

24-02-2025 10:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Germany moves to the right, euro pares gains

The euro rose as much as 0.55% on Monday but has pared most of these gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0467, up 0.11%. Merz's conservatives win German election Germany has voted and Friedrich Merz is slated to become the next president.

24-02-2025 10:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar steady as retail sales sparkle

The New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5745 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day. NZ retail sales hit 3-year high The week started on a high note in New Zealand, as retail sales jumped 0.9% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, after a revised flat reading in the third quarter and above the market estimate of 0.6%.

24-02-2025 06:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All news & analysis