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Weekly Market Outlook: Central Banks, US Rates, and Trade War Impact
This week's market outlook analyzes key central bank decisions, with the Fed and BoE in focus. We also examine US equity fund flows, inflation data, and trade war impacts. Discover support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 and insights into FX and oil markets. Stay informed with our weekly financial market review.
14-03-2025 19:43 GMT by Zain Vawda
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New Zealand dollar climbs as manufacturing improves
The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Friday.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.5722 in the European session, up 0.46% on the day. NZ Manufacturing PMI rises to near-three year high New Zealand's manufacturing sector improved in February, as Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9, up from 52.5 in January.  This was the highest level since August 2022.  All sub-index values recorded increases, including production, new orders and employment.  The Manufacturing PMI has now recorded expansi
14-03-2025 07:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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GBP/USD shrugs as UK GDP unexpectedly declines
The British pound has edged lower against the US dollar on Friday.  GBP/USD is trading at 1.2928 in the European session, down 0.13% on the day. UK economy declines 0.1% in January The UK economy barely registered any growth in the second half of 2024, rising 0.1% in the third quarter and flatlining in the third quarter.  The New Year hasn't seen any improvement, as GDP contracted 0.1% m/m in January, after a 0.4% gain in December and missing the market estimate of 0.1%.
14-03-2025 06:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Canadian dollar rises as BoC trims rates
The Canadian dollar is steady on Thursday.  In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4379, up 0.06% on the day. Bank of Canada lowers rates to 2.75% There was no surprise from the Bank of Canada, which lowered rates by a quarter-point, bringing the cash rate to 2.75% and giving a boost to the Canadian dollar.  The BoC has lowered rates at seven consecutive meetings and has chopped 225 basis points since last June. Behind the modest quarter-point cut, there is growing alarm at the Bank o
13-03-2025 06:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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US CPI softens, Oil prices rise, BoC lowers rates
Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. https://open.spotify.com/episode/4I0v08ryEcuZ4SbNNSByQR?si=227846461d374d98
13-03-2025 05:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Brent Crude Update - Oil Prices Rally as EIA Reduces Oil Surplus Estimates
Brent crude prices are rising due to lower-than-expected U.S. oil and fuel supplies and revised EIA forecasts for smaller oil surpluses in 2025 and 2026. Libya has restarted oil production at the Mabruk field, aiming to increase output significantly, while Kuwait also plans to boost its production. OPEC expects strong global oil demand growth in 2025, despite potential trade policy impacts. Most Read: Dow Jones (DJIA), S&P 500 Under Pressure as Record Cash Levels Suggest More Downside Ahead Bre
12-03-2025 17:51 GMT by Zain Vawda
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US dollar climbs against yen on soft US CPI report
The Japanese yen has lost ground against the dollar for a second straight day.  In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.39, up 0.43% on the day.  Earlier, USD/JPY rose as much as 0.96% but pared much of those gains. US inflation lower than expected US inflation surprised on the upside in February.  Headline inflation eased to 0.2% m/m from 0.5% and below the market estimate of 0.3%. Annually, headline inflation dropped to 2.8% from 3% and below the market estimate of 2.9%. It w
12-03-2025 11:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC, US inflation
The Canadian dollar posted gains earlier but couldn't consolidate.  In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4439, up 0.03% on the day. Bank of Canada likely to cut by 25 bps It's decision day at the Bank of Canada, which is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points. This would lower the cash rate to 2.75%, its lowest level since July 2022.  The BoC has been aggressive and has lowered rates at six straight meetings, chopping 200 basis points during that time. The economy remains
12-03-2025 05:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Markets steady after Monday sell-off
Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world.   https://open.spotify.com/episode/3KogqzdfyMS0rU7pk1ECUa?si=adfc29ef8f3745de
11-03-2025 14:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Dow Jones (DJIA), S&P 500 Under Pressure as Record Cash Levels Suggest More Downside Ahead
Investors are holding record levels of cash ($7.3 trillion), indicating significant caution and potential for further market downside.  Concerns about the Trump administration's tariffs and policy uncertainty, including the threat of universal tariffs, are weighing on market sentiment. S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day drop since December. Most Read: Will Gold Rally? XAU/USD Price Outlook Amidst Economic Uncertainty Wall Street Indexes have recovered overnight but investors remain cautious.
11-03-2025 10:24 GMT by Zain Vawda
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Will Gold Rally? XAU/USD Price Outlook Amidst Economic Uncertainty
Gold prices are under pressure at the start of the week due to market caution surrounding rising tariffs, recessionary fears, and geopolitical uncertainty. US CPI data is expected later in the week, with potential for higher inflation to further impact market sentiment. Technical analysis indicates mixed signals for gold (XAU/USD), with a current downtrend on the H4. Most Read: Weekly Market Outlook: Trigger Uncertainty, Nasdaq in Correction & US CPI Data Ahead Gold is feeling a bit of pressure
10-03-2025 14:42 GMT by Zain Vawda
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Canadian dollar drops after soft Canadian jobs report
The Canadian dollar is steady at the start of  the week. USD/CAD is trading at 1.4356, down 0.11% on the day.  The Canadian dollar declined 0.50% on Friday after Canada's job report  was weaker than expected. Canada's job growth grinds to a halt Canada's economy gained only 1.1 thousand jobs in February, well short of the market estimate of 20 thousand and following a strong gain of 76 thousand in January.  The labor market showed a burst of hiring over the past three months but fell flat in Feb
10-03-2025 06:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Weekly Market Outlook: Trigger Uncertainty, Nasdaq in Correction & US CPI Data Ahead
Markets experienced turmoil this week, driven by investor concerns over the Trump administration's tariff policies. The US dollar is on track for its worst week in over a year, Nasdaq entered a correction. The Bank of Canada may cut rates due to tariff impacts and economic concerns. US CPI is also due in the week ahead, will it rescue the ailing US Dollar? Read More: Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) Wild Ride – Open Interest, ETF Flows Amid Trump’s Crypto Remarks Week in Review: Fear is Rising but US Labor
07-03-2025 14:34 GMT by Zain Vawda
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Yen extends gains, markets eye US nonfarm payrolls
Japanese yen extends rally for a third consecutive day BoJ's Uchida says rate hikes still on the table despite tariff concerns US nonfarm payrolls expected to edge slightly The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Friday.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.79, down 0.13% on the day. It was a light calendar in Japan this week but that didn't stop the yen from taking advantage of a broadly weaker US dollar.  The yen has posted gains of 1.9% against the US dollar this week and
07-03-2025 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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US, Canada release job numbers - will Canadian dollar's rally continue?
The Canadian dollar is on a three-day winning streak, gaining 1.2% during that time.  USD/CAD is trading quietly at 1.4316 in the European session, up 0.14% on the day.  We could see volatility from the pair later today, as both Canada and the US releases employment reports. Canada's job growth expected to drop sharply Canada's economy remains weak but the labor market has been surprisingly resilient. The economy added 76 thousand jobs in January and 90.9 thousand a month earlier.
07-03-2025 06:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD keeps rolling after ECB rate cut
Euro rally continues ECB lowers rates by 25 bps to 2.5% ECB's Lagarde warns of growing risks and uncertainty US nonfarm payrolls expected to rise slightly to 160 thousand The euro has posted strong gains on Friday after taking a pause a day earlier.  EUR/USD is trading at 1.0858 in the European session, up 0.69% on the day.  It's been a remarkable week for the euro, which has soared 4.7% against the US dollar. ECB cuts but Lagarde warns of uncertainty The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points on
07-03-2025 05:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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NFP Preview: February 2025 Jobs Report and US Dollar Impact
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the non-farm payroll (NFP) and jobs data for February 2025 on Friday, March 7th, 2025. Economists are predicting 170,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.0%. Key factors influencing February's jobs report include potential federal job cuts, changes in trade policies, a strong services sector, and mild weather conditions. Technical analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) shows it at a crossroads, where to next? Most Read: Dow J
06-03-2025 15:51 GMT by Zain Vawda
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ECB Expected to Cut Rates: What It Means for the Euro and Markets
A 25 basis point cut to the ECB deposit facility rate is widely anticipated, marking the seventh cut in the current cycle. The ECB continues to cut rates amid slow Eurozone growth, while the Federal Reserve pauses, creating a notable divergence in monetary policy. What next for EUR/USD? Most Read: Dow Jones (DJIA) Holds Support: Tariffs, Data & US Auto Tariff Exemption A 25 basis point cut to the ECB deposit facility rate is fully expected today. However, the chances of another cut in April are
06-03-2025 07:14 GMT by Zain Vawda
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