WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil Market

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Oil prices climbed on Thursday with WTI Oil ending the day with an increase of roughly 1%, trading at $59.70 a barrel.

The upside move was primarily fueled by renewed geopolitical risk. Specifically, news of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and the backdrop of stalled peace negotiations created supply disruption fears, encouraging traders to push prices marginally higher.

Oil prices received support from the fact that peace talks for Ukraine seemed to be stalling, especially after representatives for President Trump met with the Kremlin but reported no major progress toward ending the war. Previously, hopes for a peace deal had kept prices lower, as traders worried that Russian oil would flood an already full global market.

In related news, Ukraine has continued to use drones to attack Russian oil infrastructure. A recent example was the fifth attack on the Druzhba pipeline, which sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, though the pipeline operator later stated that supplies were flowing normally.

Experts say that Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refineries has become more organized and effective. This campaign has caused Russian refining output to drop by about 335,000 barrels per day between September and November compared to last year, with the production of gasoline and gasoil being the most severely affected.

The geopolitical risks appear to be balancing out other factors such as high oil stockpiles and OPEC's production strategy. These factors are likely to keep any major moves at bay for now.

Oil prices appear destined to remain rangebound for the foreseeable future. Markets will continue to wait for a major catalyst in the form of some peace between Russia-Ukraine, or a significant change in OPEC+ strategy.

Neither situation seems likely to change anytime soon while clouds continue to hang over the global economic landscape.

Overall, the downside does appear to be favored given that supply/demand concerns appear to be structural at this stage.

With that in mind traders should be cautious about any time oil prices go up. Until there is clear proof that producers are cutting back supply, or that global demand has increased enough to use up the extra oil currently available, these price increases are likely to be temporary and will soon be followed by renewed selling.

From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI continues to struggle with significant sideways movement.

A descending trendline break has taken place but given the overarching macro picture any move at this stage may meet significant selling pressure.

The period-14 RSI has crossed above the neutral 50 level which does hint at bullish momentum.

Immediate upside resistance rests at 60.00 before the 61.67-62.12 zone comes into focus. Beyond that we have the 200-day MA which rests at 63.66.

Support to the downside rests at 58.00 before the November 25 swing low at 57.00 comes into focus.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart, November 4, 2025

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