Will Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?

Metals have completed yet another round of high-pace rally to new highs since the US government reopened and NY Fed’s Williams delivered his extra-dovish comments.

After hawkish fears failed to materialize into real corrections in the bullions, traders were eager to push for such squeezes yet again.

But with Gold failing to breach new all-time highs on this run, the attention is caught up in industrial metals, which have outperformed all precious peers (palladium, platinum, and gold).

The current leaders of the surge are Copper and Silver, which are heavily benefiting from their extreme necessity in the AI components creation and electrification megatrends.

Silver, in particular, has seen its price nearly double over the last twelve months and has recently surged to a record settlement of $59.14 an ounce.

The yellow metal is currently stuck in a narrow range and Silver keeps testing its highs. Both are awaiting tomorrow afternoon's FOMC decision before making their next definitive move. Gold’s direction will inevitably drag other metals with it.

Today's analysis will focus on a Silver intraday chart and take a look at Gold to see if the upcoming FOMC (particularly communications during the speech) has the potential to push prices higher, what could happen depending on hawkish and dovish tones, and what technical targets are now in play.

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Prospects for Silver were scary after last month's double-top formation.

But as seen throughout the year, when metals are racing higher while the US dollar heads lower, a general sign of currency balancing and risk-management perspectives from global Central Banks encourages the spread of further commodity demand.

Reaching some new highs last Monday, Silver has maintained its high-range consolidation throughout the entire week (between $56.60 to $58.50).

Ongoing sideways action at the highs allows overbought RSI levels to retreat while conserving higher chances of an upside breakout. Still, to keep an eye on the fundamental background, watch for these elements:

• If Powell's speech (starting at 14:30 E.T. tomorrow) makes mentions of a stressed labor market picture and/or if he makes allusions to more work to be done on rates, new all-time highs can easily be expected – Silver could spike between $60–$62.

• On the other hand, mentions of temporary readjustments in data, one-time reductions in labor, a "cut-and-see" approach, or anything of the sort will hurt metal demand quite harshly – a test of the previous all-time highs of $54 to $55 would make sense. If hawkish repricings see further strength, low $50s could also be visited.

• Keep an eye on 2026 cuts: The more cuts, the more fuel for the "Everything rally", and vice versa.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $60
• 2025 record $55.48
• $52 to $53 mini-resistance
• $51.18 session highs
• Potential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)
• Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)

Support Levels:

• $48.30 to $49 support
• $47 low of potential daily channel
• $45.55 October 28 lows
• $43.00 to $45.00 Weekly pivot
• $39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support
• 2012 Highs Support around $37.50

Gold sacrificed some current momentum to hold a more balanced approach ahead of the FOMC.

Moving sideways since reaching some new highs in end-October, the yellow metal could be forming an ascending triangle, a very bullish pattern.

In the case of an upside break, take the leg of the triangle (its height – $250 in this pattern) and use it as a Measured Move target which could point to $4,550 in the Bullion.

Do not forget that patterns don't mean much before they play out, and for them to play out, traders will await tomorrow's meeting.

With RSI right back at neutral (and bouncing higher from there), there is space for breakouts; expect explosive price action!

Similarly to Silver (and same for all metals), the direction of the breakout will be highly dependent on Powell's tone tomorrow – The main catalyst for continuation (or reversal) for all Markets!

Levels to watch for Gold (XAU) trading:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time High resistance $4,300 to $4,400
• Ascending triangle highs: $4,250 to $4,260
• $4,380 Current all-time Highs
• Fib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575

Support Levels

• Support, 8H 50-period MA and Triangle bottom $4,140 to $4,150
• Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)
• $3,700 consolidation Support
• $3,500 Major Support

Safe Trades!

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