Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up next

• Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure, sliding this week as its safe haven appeal was overshadowed by a strengthening US dollar.
• Rate cut bets were slashed significantly due to fears over the Middle East conflict's impact on inflation, particularly elevated oil prices.
• The upcoming FOMC meeting is critical, as new forecasts may push the penciled-in 2026 rate cut back to 2027, which would strengthen the US dollar and weigh on Gold
• The technical bias is neutral-to-bearish, with a "Death Cross" forming and price testing the critical psychological level of $5,000

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Gold prices failed to capitalize on the gap higher at the start of the week with the precious metal sliding and remaining under pressure since Monday.

Gold has seen its safe haven appeal overshadowed by the US dollar as rate cuts bets tumbled this week on fears over the Middle East conflicts impact on inflation. As the week progressed it became clear that any hope of a swift resolution may not be forthcoming.

The closure or lack of movement through the Strait of Hormuz has kept Oil prices elevated with analysts across the board running various scenarios the longer the Strait remains closed.

One of the more interesting ones comes from Bloomberg Economics who predict Oil could hit around the $160/barrel mark if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 3 months. At 1 month they have oil prices just over $100/barrel with a 2 month closure seeing oil hit the $140/barrel mark.

These concerns have seen rate cut bets slashed for the Federal Reserve from the +-66 bps prior to the conflict to 24 bps at the time of writing, per LSEG data.

This has weighed heavily on Gold together with some profit taking earlier in the week likely also sharing some of the blame.

Gold will continue to be sensitive to the ever changing rate cut data as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East evolves. Things change quickly and despite all the tough man talk on both sides, a deal could materialize quickly as we have seen in the past.

Such a move may have a major impact on overall sentiment and thus also impact gold prices.

Rate cut data could also see significant changes after the Federal Reserve meeting when we may hear for the First time what Fed policymakers think of the Iran conflict and its implications. The Fed is currently in its blackout period and thus we have not gotten any reactions vis a vis the Iran situation.

We will get new forecasts from officials as well. The December update had one rate cut penciled in for 2026. There is a clear risk it gets pushed back to 2027 in the current climate. Such a move could further weigh on Gold prices and would strengthen the US dollar.

All other data releases will likely remain overshadowed by rate cut bets and geopolitical developments.

From a technical standpoint, Gold is currently exhibiting a bearish consolidation following a sharp correction from its early-month highs near $5420/oz and last week's highs at $5238/oz.

Gold is trading within a defined horizontal range (red box) between $5,050 and $5,200. A recent break below suggests increasing selling pressure, with price now testing the critical psychological level of $5,000.

However, given the overarching conditions, the break lower may prove short-lived. We saw a similar false breakout earlier this week,but to the upside.

It swiftly dropped back inside the box and has grinded sideways ever since,

A "Death Cross" is forming as the 50-SMA ($5,139) trends sharply toward the 100-SMA ($5,158). Price is currently pinned below both averages, confirming a bearish shift in short-term momentum.

The bias remains neutral-to-bearish while below $5,130. A decisive H4 close below the $5,000 support could trigger a deeper liquidation toward the $4,840 zone.

Conversely, buyers need a breakout above $5,200 to reclaim the bullish trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 13, 2026

Trade Safe.

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