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USD/JPY: Hot NFP report sends dollar higher after US economy has best job growth since January

US jobs gains broadest since January; 336,000 created vs 170,000 eyed Wages unexpectedly came in cooler than expected; holding steady with a 0.2% monthly pace and on annual basis down from 4.3% to 4.2%. Dollar surges across the board with the exception to the Canadian dollar (Canada posted a robust 63,800 job gain themselves, tripling their consensus estimate).

06-10-2023 09:56 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: JOLTS dollar pop likely triggered Japanese intervention

USD/JPY fell 275 pips immediately after the JOLTS report sent price action above the 150 level Japan MOF Official: No comment on in Japan intervened with the yen JOLTS: August job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.920 million to 9.610 million

03-10-2023 11:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar wavers as the Fed's two-day policy begins

Modest dollar weakness is emerging as the Fed begins their two-day policy meeting; the euro is back above the 1.07 level, while the loonie is advancing below the 200-day SMA, and as the British pound rises above the 1.24 level. Positioning into the FOMC meeting is seeing rate options traders increase hedges, which means some traders are worried that the expected mid-year pivot could be in jeopardy. FOMC Inflation has come down a lot, but the Fed’s inflation isn’t quite over yet. The market

19-09-2023 08:25 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CHF: Franc drops despite dollar's first weekly decline since mid-July

FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain benchmark lending rate target at 5.25% to 5.5%, signaling one last rate increase SNB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00% Treasury yield curve shifts higher; 10-year yield rises 4.2bps to 4.328% The Swiss franc is not attracting any safe-haven flows as China shows more signs of stabilizing and with another round of US data/reports that support the soft landing narrative. USD/CHF Daily Chart The US dollar rally is approaching a conf

15-09-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: More volatility to come; Apple’s big reveal, Cooling inflation, Japan chatter, and a weakening US outlook

Post-BOJ Initial reaction - yen jumped, dollar fell, gold rallied, and equities rose. Some of these moves have started to reverse Japan's Overnight Swap Indexes have an implied rate of 0.042% by the January 23rd BOJ policy meeting US 3-year Treasury attracts highest yield since 2007 (4.660% vs 4.650% pre-sale)

11-09-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Bad week for stocks, good week for oil

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss Wall Street's losing week, a robust Canadian jobs report, and oil's bullish trend. Next week's US inflation data and retail sales report will be key for the Fed's November rate hike expectations.

08-09-2023 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Dollar pares gains after Harker says Fed’s done enough with rates

Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate sees real Q3 GDP growth of 5.9%, up from last week's 5.8% Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech is scheduled for tomorrow at 10:05 am EST Fed's Harker (voter) says they've done enough with rates while Fed's Collins (non-voter) more rate hikes may be needed As Wall Street awaits Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, some traders shifted their focus to Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker’s CNBC interview. When talking about interest Harker said, “Righ

24-08-2023 11:56 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Yen rallies on soft US PMIs, Foot Locker cuts guidance again, EIA report highlights a tight market

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Nick Syiek (Trader Nick) to discuss the latest global PMI readings, Foot Locker earnings, and the EIA crude oil report

23-08-2023 16:10 GMT by Edward Moya

D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom

The share price performance of Nvidia has been the main driver of Nasdaq 100 outperformance/premium against the rest of the world stock indices ex-US. Lofty expectations have been priced in for Nvidia ahead of its Q2 earnings release today. Several bearish technical elements have emerged in the share price of Nvidia.

23-08-2023 05:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - China property fears hit sentiment, US outlook remains upbeat

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Nick Syiek (Trader Nick) to discuss intervention expectations from both China and Japan, the FOMC minutes and the outlook for Q3 GDP, and what Walmart earnings told us about the US consumer.

17-08-2023 13:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar dip might be temporary if US outlook remains robust

Walmart CEO is more optimistic about spending patterns than he did 3 months ago Dollar's five-day rally halted as yen and yuan rebound Fed could remain in hiking mode if economic resilience prevents inflation from coming down Now that we heard from Walmart, it is clear that the US consumer is still willing to spend. Expectations for robust consumer spending in Q3 have been confirmed and that should keep growth estimates trending higher. With COVID savings still expected to be used over the ne

17-08-2023 11:53 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD: BOE to hike further after hot wage data, US stocks struggle on China and banking concerns

Record UK wage growth keeps the pressure on the BOE to deliver more tightening PBOC rate cut surprise shows officials growing concern with the property crisis Fitch warns US banks could face downgrades Record wage growth will keep the pressure on the BOE to deliver more tightening. The economy still has a tight labor market as companies need to pay their employees more money. The rise in the unemployment rate was due to more people returning to the workforce. Average pay excluding bonuses

15-08-2023 12:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Yields rise alongside dollar; Tech leads the charge higher as stocks rebound from 2-week lows

US 10-year tips yield rise to the highest levels since 2009 NY Fed near-term inflation falls to lowest levels since 2021 Nasdaq rebounds as AI trade returns Summer trading and some choppiness has helped the US dollar continue to rally as rates remain volatile. It has not been a smooth ride for the dollar as investors weigh concerns on rising debt levels, cooling inflation expectations, and rising confidence that the Fed will cut rates next year. What is fascinating is that the 10-year TIPS yi

14-08-2023 15:45 GMT by Edward Moya

US stocks gyrate on hot PPI report and anchored inflation expectations; Oil rallies and gold softens

US stocks are mostly gyrating over economic data points and surveys that remind us that the disinflation process is going to struggle reaching the Fed’s 2% target. A slightly hotter-than-expected PPI report sent Treasury yields initially higher as Wall Street started to fret over a potential reacceleration with inflation. It is easy to make the hawkish case for the Fed as we are still expecting rising wages from labor disputes, higher energy prices, and a gradual weakening of the labor market.

11-08-2023 13:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Hawkish Fed speak boosts dollar across all the board

Fed's Bowman reiterates that more hikes might be need to bring down inflation German Industrial Production fell to a 6-month low US inflation data expected to support a September pause, but possible coin flip for the November meeting The US dollar is stronger across the board as the bond market selloff returns, sending the 10-year Treasury yield 6.9 basis points higher to 4.103%. After a mixed jobs report (slower job growth pace but higher wages) this week is all about an inflation report that

07-08-2023 09:10 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Will US core CPI stay at the lowest levels since 2021?

Everyone will be watching the US inflation report as a cool report could help support soft landing hopes and seal the deal for some that the Fed is done raising rates. Expectations for the July inflation report is for headline inflation to rise towards the mid-3% range, while core inflation remains steady and holding onto the lowest levels since 2021 on both a monthly basis at 0.2% and at 4.8% from a year ago.

04-08-2023 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar dips as labor market slowdown bolsters case that the Fed is done raising rates

USD/JPY declines on expectations BOJ will let rates rise quickly Fed rate cut bets fully priced in by March meeting; implied rate stands at 5.123% Fed’s Bostic noted US employment gains are slowing in an orderly manner, no need for tightening NFP Day The US economy should continue to gradually weaken as the labor market softens. This labor market report showed 187,000 jobs were added to the economy, while wage pressures heated up, and as the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%. This NFP report

04-08-2023 10:36 GMT by Edward Moya

Global Bond Market Selloff Extends after BOE signals more tightening ahead

BOE rate hike odds for the September 21st meeting stand at 87.3% The VIX index trades above 16, to the highest levels in two months FX Volatility starts to pick, Canadian dollar index rises to nine-month high Wall Street is watching a global bond market selloff get uglier as US stocks waver ahead of massive earnings from Apple and Amazon. A lot of economic data confirmed how resilient the US economy remains.

03-08-2023 15:22 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar gains as risk aversion returns on Fitch's US downgrade and surging Treasury issuance

Dollar rises as Treasury yields hit 2023 highs on ADP report and rising debt issuance US firms add 324,000 in July, exceeding all estimates (140K to 280K) Fitch downgrades US on fiscal deterioration over next 3 years and surging debt burden US stocks are getting hit with a one-two punch as Fitch’s US sovereign downgrade overnight and on expectations the US Treasury will continue to boost the size of their debt sales. Earnings have been still coming mostly better than expected but the major ind

02-08-2023 13:13 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Dollar rises on US credit rating downgraded, Treasury issuance, and ADP jobs boost

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart to discuss the Fitch's US Sovereign rating downgrade, a hot ADP private payrolls report, and the EIA's record inventory draw.

02-08-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

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