North American mid-week Market update – December FOMC rate cut hopes saves the Market

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

North American markets have been subject to wild swings since last week, oscillating violently between a downside panic in Stock Markets and a consequent, gigantic rebound that kicked off on Friday.

The US Dollar mirrored this volatility, posting a strong rebound all the way to the psychological 100.00 level before retracting.

The reason behind this turbulence is the primary mover for all assets right now: FOMC rate pricing.

We witnessed a progressive and dramatic shift in expectations, moving from a priced-in 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut, down to a meager 20%, and now whipping back to the current 80% probability.

The volatility was fueled by a clash of narratives: hawkish news initially dominated with increased mentions of inflation risks from the Fed, but this was effectively counteracted by private data showing rising layoffs and softer retail sales yesterday, which put the cuts firmly back on the table.

US Stocks, highly sensitive to these swings in the FOMC tone, reacted immediately to this relief, particularlya fter last week's NY Fed Williams' dovish speech.

Now that the 25 bps cut seems all but confirmed, the lingering question shifts to the tone of Jerome Powell at the December 10th meeting and whether anything could sway the decision before then.

The upcoming PMI reports (December 1 and 2) and most importantly, the Core PCE report (Dec 5) stand as the only real data point with the potential to disrupt the current pricing, as the remaining calendar is filled mostly with weekly claims.

Still, keep an eye on the Monthly ADP release which could sway markets quite a bit.

In any case, let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USD/CAD and DXY charts.

You can see how sharp the rebound has been since Markets welcomed the dovish turn from Fed's Williams.

Volatility has been high, so participants can't just expect a smooth way to a December 10 cut!

The US Dollar has been correcting since the beginning of this week, breaking lower from its September upwards Channel while forming a double top – It now holds well below the 100.00 level.

Check out our multi-currency FX analysis to spot interesting setups in Major Pairs:

US Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlook

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone
• 100.376 November highs
• Top of channel and psychological level at 101.00
• 99.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivot

Support Levels

• Higher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00
• Mini-support 98.50 and 8H MA 200
• Main support 98.00

You can see how sharp the shift has been in the US Dollar.

Some currencies like the GBP and NZD have although dragged quite some attention, posting the best performance in Weekly FX.

Story of the CAD – At every rally, there will be a fade.

The loonie only appreciated against the weak JPY and CHF, two risk-off currencies.

End of week GDP data for Canada will be closely watched, as the no-USA Deal still hurts CAD prospects.

The USD/CAD was victim to a lot of up-and-down swings throughout the past week, breaking 1.40 before bouncing back higher in a flash.

A double top now clearly looms, so keep an eye on this and the Dollar Index to trade the North American Pair.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• Cycle highs 1.4143 and Double top
• Current Resistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145
• Key resistance 1.4250

Support Levels

• Liberation Day level around 1.4050, Major Pivot
• Major Daily Support 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)
• 1.38 Major support +/- 150 pips
• August range support 1.3750
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

Tomorrow will welcome the Thanksgiving Holiday so expect only Canadian Data for the rest of the week.

Some data for the CAD will see the Current Account (international trade data) tomorrow at 9:30.

But the most important will be the Canadian Q3 GDP releasing Friday at 9:30 A.M. ET which doesn't hold high expectations:

A miss will only confirm the pre-existing CAD weakness.

A beat however could relaunch prospects for the currency.

Stock Markets in the US will be closed tomorrow for the entire day, and will see a partial open on Friday:

Equity Markets will be open until 13:00 and US bonds close at 14:00.

Safe Trades!

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