Investors rush in hope that War resolution isn't an April Fool's – North American Mid-Week Market Update

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Markets are now insisting more on the fact that the end of the War could be approaching, with the narrative turning towards resolution
• After pushing above $100, WTI is now testing a pullback below the psychological level, leading to a rush to risk-assets

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

The change in narrative compared to the disastrous end of last week was so swift that it could be easy to wonder if this isn't just an April's joke – Although this one would be at a massive benefit for global investors.

After ~10% drops across North American Indexes, pessimism had begun to dampen the mood severely – participants were starting to price in an endless conflict, akin to Afghanistan or Iraq, which gave a pretty nasty outlook for already elevated Oil prices.

WTI Crude is now back closer to $100 from $105, little progress but much better than what previous rises were pointing towards, as uncertainty gets shunned further. Lots of progress will still have to be made to push for a real correction in the commodity.

As mentioned in our past Mid-Week recap, investors will still be looking at whether tankers can really flow through Hormuz and if global Oil prices can take a consistent turn to the downside. Some technical elements at least point in that direction.

Russia did indicate that Iran was moving to allow more tankers to go through Hormuz, but Markets won't be as positive if it's only for Iranian allies.

Go check out our fresh in-depth WTI Analysis right here.

At least, Stock Market Bulls haven't wasted the opportunity, pushing all major US Indexes to a swift rebound in last day's trading, with the move only starting to get traction. To generate a persistent move higher, traders will have to see a proper resolution.

The buying has been a bit more erratic this morning, even with Indexes pushing higher with headlines from Tehran indicating that "the Strait of Hormuz won't be reopened based on Trump's displays", which marks how cloudy the picture still really is.

After a strong open that took Nasdaq up above 1%, buyers are slowly backing off and taking profits while waiting for a clear path ahead.

Apart from Iran, traders continue to receive decent US economic data, with beats in Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs that contrast yesterday's lower Job Openings data.

We are now seeing the impact of the conflict on data, and this should continue to affect upcoming releases, so it will be interesting to see whether the economy is really getting sapped by energy prices or if it is really the well-oiled tank it has been in recent years.

Retail Sales released at +0.6% (vs 0.5%), a first beat in the data since November 2025; while Manufacturing PMIs beat expectations by 0.2. Little progress, but we are still far from a recession, based on how things are looking.

Traders will be closely watching macro data as Central Bankers focus on the impact of the War on economic performance to decide whether rate hikes will really be necessary (or if rate cuts would actually be warranted).

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Brent-WTI falls to 2026 lows! Oil corrects as War resolution nears – WTI Outlook
• Euro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?
• Chart alert: US stock indices rally smells like a dead cat bounce – outlook on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones (DJIA)

The recovery has been wild especially when contrasting with Friday's global tumble, with higher beta Indexes like the German Dax and the Canadian TSX taking the lead.

Expect to see more of this if the narrative continues to ease.

The Dollar Index has formed a clear double top and has retraced strongly since, back below the key 100.00 mark.

Don't hesitate to check out our past session's US Dollar in-depth checkup to learn more!

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)
• May 2025 Resistance 101.30 to 101.80
• Major Weekly Resistance 102.50 to 103.00

Support Levels

• 99.70 mini-support
• 99.40 to 99.50 Momentum Pivot (bearish below)
• 98.70 to 99.00 Support
• 98.00 Key Mid-Range Support
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The US Dollar profited from its end-week resilience, but with the turn in narrative and the double top in the Dollar Index, it will be interesting to see if it can hold its elevated levels.

By the way, April seasonals for the US Dollar are not supportive, being the worst month for the currency in the year.

The Canadian Dollar has now been struggling against most FX Majors despite Oil's persistent rebound.

Despite last day's beat in Canadian GDP, the release remains an outstander compared to recent misses in Inflation and PMIs – So better activity will have to be marked to confirm a more consistent rally in the Loonie.

USD/CAD has now reached the upper bound of its 1.3550 to 1.3950 large range, rejecting resistance but facing mixed fundamentals ahead, with corrections in WTI affecting negatively both currencies.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.3950 mini-resistance (Range highs and recent top)
• 1.40 Major Resistance

Support Levels

• 1.3850 Momentum Pivot
• 1.38 Mini-support +/- 150 pips
• 1.3750 Pivotal Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)
• October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.35

The largest event is clearly the Non-Farm Payrolls, with traders still awaiting to see a labor picture after the rollercoasters observed in the last few months.

For the rest, keep a close eye on Middle East Developments.

Safe Trades!

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