Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 14
Today's session unleashed a wave of panic across global markets, driven by a combination of factors: the weekend's attack on the Fed, inflation data that—while not alarming—remains hot enough to delay rate cuts, and most importantly, the growing probability of an attack on Iran.
Regarding the latter, such fears had built a strong premium into Oil prices despite today's release of very high US inventories: WTI surged from $55.80 to highs of $62 in about a week, a +10% move.
However, things calmed significantly when President Trump appeared, stating that the "killing in Iran is stopping," which would likely discourage US intervention—at least, that is what the market is assuming.
Promptly after the comments, released about an hour before the close, stocks were relieved of their intense pressure.
The Nasdaq, for example, rallied from down 1.70% at its lows to close the day down "only" 1%. The Dow Jones recovered to finish nearly unchanged.
Oil, on the other hand, saw a catastrophic drop as the premium eased, falling from $62 to $60 to close down on the session.
Metals, however, are not trusting this headline. Silver closed well above $92, posting yet another 8% rise in today's session. Gold and Platinum also moved to new all-time and yearly highs, respectively.
Overall, the story seems far from over.
President Trump's decision relies on intel that the violence is subsiding, so we will need to see if the executions related to the revolts actually cease before the narrative truly dissipates.
In the meantime, this could be (albeit unlikely) a "pump-fake" in case the US really moves to attack Iran. Even if they don't, it is safe to assume the Iranian population will find its way. This is a story to be tracked closely.
Stock Market Heatmap – A visible relief after the Trump Admin comments
To see how things were looking, I invite you to check out our morning Index analysis.
Quite a calmer picture.
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
What a volatile session!
My call is that things can be expected to stay like this for a while.
Cryptos are largely the winners of today's session (and yesterday's), along with Silver (as per usual).
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
Except for the Yen rebounding sharply again in today's session, other FX majors have just dazzled around.
Keep an eye on geopolitical developments for the Yen and USD as safe-haven currencies!
A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions
Except for a few data releases for New Zealand, UK GDP and a Fed Speak cascade, not much is expected tomorrow.
So keep a close eye on the freshest news regarding Iran, the main factor for markets right now.
Safe Trades!
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