Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 4
In case markets hadn’t had enough geopolitical yo-yos, the US announced that discussions with Iran, expected on Friday, were cancelled — sending oil prices spiking nearly 3% as President Trump warned that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “should be very worried.”
The surprise didn’t last long. Minutes later, talks were put back on the table, this time in Oman and without intermediaries. If this latest attempt fails, tensions are likely to escalate further.
Beyond geopolitics, markets are increasingly focused on a massive rotation underway in equities, shifting from high-flying tech back toward defensive blue chips.
Years of elevated valuations are now being tested as markets move into a new phase of the bull cycle, even as major indices remain close to all-time highs.
Despite the risk-off headlines, gold briefly pushed above $5,000 but failed to hold the psychological level, as profit-taking and long-position unwinds kicked in, dragging the metals Market lower.
Bitcoin is also closing below its key $75,000 level and ETH below $2,100 – Not good for Cryptos.
President Trump also commented on his nomination of Kevin Warsh during an NBC interview, insisting Warsh “won’t fail” to deliver rate cuts.
That confidence, however, may prove hard to justify amid recent PMI rebounds — highlighted by Monday’s strong Manufacturing surprise and today’s firmer Services data, with prices paid hitting two-year highs.
Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 4, 2026
The rotation is quite clear when looking at this session's heatmap.
Keep an eye on these developments for stocks, particularly if it spreads to the wider market – This could be a 2000 Dot.com drop building in front of us.
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Volatility fiends and Cryptocurrency bears are getting served.
Expect even more volatility ahead.
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
Currency Performance, February 4, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs
The US Dollar decoupled from the Yen in today's session as mean-reversion flows extend in the Reserve Currency and Markets still price for a more-hawkish leaning Warsh.
On the other side of the performance spectrum are the Yen (not surprising) and the Kiwi dollar, which suffered a significant down day in today's session, after a (small) rise in the NZ Unemployment rate.
Today's session really wasn't as volatile, so traders could potentially prepare for next Wednesday's NFP release before moving their pieces further.
Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session
Earnings Calendar for February 4, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com
Amazon will be in the spotlight after the close! Keep track of how Google's earnings spread into Market sentiment.
Results are expected to release soon.
A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Midweek momentum remains data-heavy, with Australia’s trade figures and NAB business confidence closing out Wednesday before attention fully shifts to a packed Thursday session.
In the US, markets will be particularly alert to Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who speaks for the first time since her investigation revealed in August in about a few hours— a potentially market-moving event for the US Dollar.
Barring for any key headline, Europe and the UK dominate the core of Thursday’s session.
The Bank of England is expected to hold rates, but the vote split, minutes and Bailey’s press conference will be crucial in gauging how close the MPC is to pivoting toward further potential cuts.
Shortly after, the ECB delivers its rate decision (no change expected) and press conference, where communications are expected to remain stable.
US releases include Challenger job cuts, initial claims and JOLTS, all feeding into the labour-market narrative ahead of next week's report.
By the way, the Bureau of Labor Statistics just confirmed that the NFP release for January will be on next Wednesday.
Loonie traders will want to pay close attention to Macklem's speech tomorrow at 12:40 E.T.
Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!
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