How fast the tides turn – Market wrap for the North American session - November 24

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 24

Connecting market movements to specific headlines is often a daunting task—a reality that keeps the "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage relevant.

The most recent casualty of this phenomenon was the Nvidia earnings report.

Despite the AI giant delivering quarterly results that blew past even the loftiest expectations, the reaction heavily faked out investors: an initial surge was quickly erased, leading to a 180-degree turn lower on Thursday that dragged broader sentiment down with it.

As the dust settles, markets seem to be really focusing on one thing: The FOMC path.

To maintain these lofty valuations into 2026, rate cuts are not just desired; they are essential. The high costs associated with the leveraged AI boom could remain prohibitive if the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, making the policy outlook a difficult call.

Market pricing for a December rate cut has been a rollercoaster, plummeting from near-certainty to a scant 20% probability in a matter of weeks following Chair Powell's cautious speech and amplified by hawkish echoes from other Fed members.

However, NY Fed President John Williams—a highly influential voice—stepped in to ease those concerns. His comments, signaling that policy remains restrictive enough to warrant easing, breathed life back into the narrative, pushing the odds of a December cut back up to around 70%.

In Geopolitics, US President Trump also expressed quite some positive words after his call with the China's Xi Jinping which provided a further boost to an already better looking Ukraine war outlook.

With sentiment now buoyed by another Magnificent 7 rebound—led by a 2.6% surge in the Nasdaq to start the week—we could be seeing a reignition of the "debasement trade" flows, with Cryptos and Gold attempting to rally alongside equities.

It feels almost like early 2025 again.

Nevertheless, anxiety may still loom as many traders head for the exits for the Thanksgiving week, so expect volumes and volatility to stay contained as the holiday approaches.

Today's picture was very similar to the classic 2025 trend, with only Oil changing the chart.

Gold, Nasdaq and Bitcoin are the three leaders of the session, loving the latest Trump news.

Better supply prospects in the event of a Russia-Ukraine peace-deal was the main factor behind today's rebound.

It's a typical Thanksgiving Weekly open for Currency Markets.

Rangebound Markets throughout the eight Major currencies, with only the Yen separating from its peers, with the positive Sentiment dragging the currency down.

This also comes as mean reversion with the end-week fall in USD/JPY – This FX pair will once again the one to track for the entire week, with a potential Intervention still very possible.

(still, expect the week to be relatively calm)

Tomorrow's session should be quite eventful after today's rebound.

The overnight session will turn the eyes towards the German Final GDP for Q3, expected at 0%, and should help to see where the overall Euro-economy is heading.

Almost no cuts are priced in for the ECB, but any major downward surprise in Europe's largest economy could change the situation.

This will be followed by a couple of ECB speeches from ECB's Escrivá (5:00 A.M. ET) and Sleijpen (5:30 A.M. ET).

The US Session should be even more active however with a slate of US releases that will quench the thirst for data after a drought, even if these releases will be past news (September data).

The first will be the ADP weekly Private labor data (8:15 A.M. ET), which surprised markets at its first release. It will be interesting to see how Markets react to it going forward.

For the rest, Expect Retail Sales and PPI data (8:30 A.M. ET) which could be major movers, as the official statistics agencies finally release the September numbers on wholesale inflation and consumer spending.

US Housing data will follow suit at 10:00 A.M. ET as investors look to confirm a potential rebound in both the Consumer Confidence and the rate-sensitive Pending Home Sales after weeks of weakening.

The rest of the day could be calm as many traders are out for the Thanksgiving week, a traditionally slow but green week in Markets.

The evening will however be the most important:

Inflation data from Australia will heat up the evening session at 20:30 ET before the RBNZ Rate decision follows suit at 22:00 ET. A 25 bps cut is expected but not fully priced in, so expect some surprise and volatility for the Kiwi dollar around the rate and policy review.

Safe Trades!

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