Forex: All News & Analysis

Waiting Game: Debt Ceiling Drama to resume, Inflation in focus

Dollar slightly stronger ahead of President Biden's pivotal meeting with congressional leaders NFIB report shows sentiment plunges to weakest levels in a decade Wall Street is hoping lawmakers won't have to resort to a short-term debt limit extension US stocks are mostly lower ahead of what will be the start of a lengthy debt ceiling negotiations and ahead of inflation report that should shows the disinflation process is struggling. No one is expecting any meaningful progress with President Bi

09-05-2023 15:11 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - Yen shrugs after Japanese wages, household spending fall

Japan's real wages fall for 12th straight month Japan's household spending falls 1.9% Fed sounds warning over tighter bank conditions USD/JPY is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.18. Household spending and wages slip Japan's households are again holding tightly to the purse strings, as household spending fell 1.9% y/y in March, following a 1.6% gain in February. The consensus estimate stood at 0.4%.

09-05-2023 10:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD dips on soft retail sales

AUD/USD ends 6-day rally Australian retail sales decline Fed warns that banks are tightening credit The Australian dollar is in negative territory, ending a rally of close to 200 points. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6760, down 0.29% on the day. Australian retail sales decline Australian retail sales posted a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter, following a downwardly revised reading of -0.3% in Q4 2022.

09-05-2023 06:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD extends gains as business confidence improves

Australian business conditions improve Australian consumer confidence expected to decline AUD/USD continues strong rally The Australian dollar continues its impressive rally which started on May 2nd. AUD/USD has surged 2.6% during that time.

08-05-2023 13:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY drifting ahead of consumer spending and income reports

BoJ minutes focussed on inflation Bank turmoil, debt ceiling weighs on risk appetite Japan to release consumer spending and income The Japanese yen has started the trading week quietly and is trading just below the 135 line. BoJ minutes eye inflation The Bank of Japan released the minutes of the March meeting today. Inflation was, unsurprisingly, a hot topic at the meeting.

08-05-2023 10:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar powers to 5-week high on strong job numbers

Canada add 41K new jobs US nonfarm payrolls jump to 253K Canadian dollar surges by 1.2% The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3339, down 0.26%. Canada's job market stays hot Canada's labour market defied expectations in April, as the economy added 41,400 jobs, above the March gain of 34,700 and the consensus estimate of 20,000.

08-05-2023 06:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

JPY bearish positioning is getting overstretched

Better than expected US non-farm payrolls for April have failed to ignite US dollar bulls. Two outliers; the safe haven currencies, CHF and JPY underperformed against the US dollar due to the resurgence of risk-on behaviour in the US stock market. JPY future’s bearish positioning has highlighted a risk of a short-term revival of JPY’s strength. Last Friday, the better-than-expected US official non-farm payrolls data (labour market) for April failed to trigger a meaningful rally in the US dollar

08-05-2023 01:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Labor Market remains resilient (for both the US and Canada)

Hot US NFP report shows 253,000 jobs created in April, prior months massively revised down Robust Canadian employment data doubles forecast Banking worries ease as Regional bank stocks rebound US stocks extended gains after the US nonfarm payroll report showed the labor market remains resilient. Stocks were off to a good start after decent results from Apple and as the regional banks rebounded after getting a nice upgrade from JPMorgan and as some banks/brokerages continue to show deposits are

05-05-2023 12:28 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Another hot US jobs report, ECB slows rate hikes, BoE next week

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US jobs report, the ECB rate hike, and the week ahead.

05-05-2023 12:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - US CPI data eyed while BoE seeks to get inflation back below 10%

US The labor market is showing signs of resilience, but now the focus shifts back to inflation, with focus on the banking space. The banking system doesn't look ‘sound and resilient’ as more banks come under stress. US regulators will eventually be forced to act as the banking crisis worsens and that could mean the further unwinding of more banks. The April inflation report is expected to show that the disinflation process is starting to lose momentum.

05-05-2023 11:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CHF - Swiss franc sinks on SNB's Jordan, nonfarm payrolls

SNB's Jordan says cannot exclude further hikes US nonfarm payrolls rise unexpectedly USD/CHF soars by 100 points The Swiss franc has taken riders on a roller-coaster ride this week. On Wednesday, USD/CHF plunged 1% but it has recovered all of these losses on Friday, courtesy of Swiss National Bank President Jordan and a strong nonfarm payrolls release. SNB's Jordan says rate hike on the table.

05-05-2023 09:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD -Euro shrugs off weak eurozone, German data

Eurozone, German data disappoint ECB raises rates by 25 bp US nonfarm payrolls expected to decline EUR/USD is drifting on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1028, up 0.13% on the day. Today's eurozone and German data were a disappointment.

05-05-2023 07:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reports

Canada's employment change expected to slow US nonfarm payrolls projected to fall to 179,000 Canadian dollar rallies for third straight day The Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st. Canadian employment change expected to ease The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today.

05-05-2023 05:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CNH: Animal spirits are in control of China’s equities

China equities & its proxies are resilient against a lacklustre macro environment. Sentiment-driven animal spirits are playing a key role in the recent rebound of China equities. USD/CNH (part of the sentiment-driven factor) has flashed exhaustion conditions after failing to break above the key 200-day moving average. The past four days of performances seen in the China stock market and its proxies seem to be more driven by animal spirits rather than fundamentals. Let’s discuss a bit about th

05-05-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar edges higher as Ivey PMI expansion continues

Canada's Ivey PMI expands for fourth month in a row Fed raises rates, markets expect a cut in September US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall below 200K In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3585, down 0.23% on the day. Canada's Ivey PMI expands for 4th straight month Canada's Ivey PMI, a key indicator of business activity, continued to show expansion, with readings above 50.0 for a fourth successive month. The PMI eased from 58.2 to 56.8 in April but beat the consensus of 54.

04-05-2023 11:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CHF - Swiss franc hits 16-week high on dovish Fed

Swiss inflation expected to rise to 0.5% Swiss franc's appreciation raises concerns at SNB Fed raises rates by 25 bp USD/CHF is trading at 0.8872 today, up 0.32%. The pair is recovering after the Swiss franc surged by 1% a day earlier. USD/CHF falls close to 0.88 line The Swiss franc pummelled the US dollar on Wednesday and USD/CHF fell as low as 0.8820 today, its lowest level since January 21st.

04-05-2023 09:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro craters after the ECB signaled they are almost done tightening

ECB will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive ECB expects to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July ECB slows rate hiking pace to 25bps (as expected), bringing key rate to 3.75% The ECB kept the door open for more hikes, but it looks like they are positioning for the June or July meeting to take rates to a restrictive level.

04-05-2023 08:40 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD edges lower, ECB expected to raise rates

ECB expected to raise rates by 25 bp Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 bp Powell signals a pause in June EUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. ECB expected to hike, but by how much? All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points?

04-05-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Asian stock markets rejoiced post-FOMC

US stock indices spooked by Fed Chair Powell’s “hawkish” comments. USD sold off while safe haven currencies, JPY & CHF in demand. Asian stock market outperformed while Hong Kong indices rebounded from the key 200-day moving average. No surprise from the US central bank, Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome yesterday where the Fed hiked its policy Fed funds rate by 25 basis points as expected, its 10th hike in this current tightening cycle to a target range of 5% to 5.25%. Most importantly,

04-05-2023 02:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong

The Fed is done hiking rates, dollar bears in control, Commodities mixed

Pricing of swaps were volatile during the FOMC decision, settling at a 6.3% for a quarter-point hike at the June 14th meeting Dollar weaker across the board as the yen surges 1.1% Oil crushed as supply and demand indicators remain bearish The Fed’s tenth straight rate hike will likely be the last one in this cycle. The Fed is concerned that tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity and hiring, while helping maintain disinflation trends. Credit tightening is about to cripple th

03-05-2023 15:55 GMT by Edward Moya

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