Forex: All News & Analysis

Dollar dips after SLOOS signals tightening lending standards across all categories

4.8% of Large & Mid-market firms in July say conditions tightened considerably, up from 3.2% in April. Commercial and Industrial loans for medium and large firms saw an increase in tightening terms (50.8% vs 46% prior) Fed rate cut odds for the December 13th meeting remained around 17.5% The Fed July Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices highlighted a that tightening lending standards occurred across all categories. The impact from the Fed's tightening cycle is clearly i

31-07-2023 14:33 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil and loonie flying high together again

Oil poised for best monthly performance since early 2022 Net-long positions in WTI rise to highest levels in 3 months Goldman says global oil demand has surpassed peak set just before COVID-19 USD/CAD Canadian dollar Oil and the loonie are flying high again as global growth prospects improve and on optimism the Fed is done tightening. The Canadian dollar was weakening last week on fears that the BOC's tightening cycle is starting to weigh on the economy. That outlook might change if China

31-07-2023 13:27 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar wavers ahead of SLOOS

Eurozone Q2 GDP returned to growth with a 0.3% advance reading (prior revised higher to 0.0%). Eurozone core inflation held steady at 5.3% Stocks have a flat session as traders await NFP Friday US stocks are wavering ahead of a key Fed survey that should show loan growth is weakening and that the economy should steadily weaken. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) will tell us how top lending officers feel about the credit outlook. The US dollar isn’t making any major moves as Wall

31-07-2023 13:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro shrugs as eurozone GDP, core CPI accelerate

Eurozone core inflation surprises on the upside Eurozone GDP accelerates to 0.3% The euro is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1023, up 0.06%. It has been a wild ride for the euro over the past two weeks.

31-07-2023 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen slides to 3-week low vs dollar as BoJ buys JGBs

BoJ announces JGB purchases Japanese yen's slide continues The Japanese yen has extended its slide on Monday and is trading at 142.22, down 0.75% against the US dollar. BoJ surprises with JGB purchases The Japanese yen continues to show sharp volatility, which can be attributed directly to moves by the Bank of Japan. On Friday, the BoJ caught the markets by surprise and loosened its yield curve control policy.

31-07-2023 10:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation release

Australian MI Inflation gauge jumps 0.8% AUD/USD climbs 0.80% RBA expected to pause rates on Tuesday The Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%.

31-07-2023 06:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/GBP Technical: Recent downside momentum subsided

The 4-hour RSI oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region. A break above the 50-day moving average now acts as a 0.8600 intermediate resistance may rekindle another leg of short-term rebound for EUR/GBP. The next resistance stands at 0.8720 which is also the 200-day moving average. The recent 157 pips slide seen on the EUR/GBP cross pair from its 0.8701 high printed on 19 July 2023 to 27 July 2023 intraday low of 0.8544 has managed to find support at the fo

31-07-2023 05:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - BoE to keep hiking, US jobs and eurozone inflation eyed

With inflation steadily cooling, the Fed’s historic tightening campaign appears to be ending. The focus on Wall Street won’t just be inflation but now also economic activity. The upcoming week will be filled with several economic readings. On Monday, we will see two Fed regional surveys. The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slightly improve while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity report remains deeply in negative territory.

28-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - Has the ECB hiked rates for the last time?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the ECB rate decision and the latest data from the US.

28-07-2023 09:01 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD rebounds after sharp losses

EUR/USD rebounds after 1% fall on Thursday US GDP for Q1 beats expectations The euro has bounced back on Friday after sliding 0.99% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1018, up 0.38%.

28-07-2023 08:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar flat ahead of Canadian GDP

Canada's GDP expected to rebound in May US releases PCE index The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3223 in the European session. Things could get busier for the Canadian dollar in the North American session, as Canada releases GDP and the US publishes its preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Price index. Canada's GDP expected to improve in May Canada's economy stalled in April, as GDP came in at 0.0% m/m.

28-07-2023 06:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen goes on a wild ride after BoJ shocker

The Japanese yen took investors on a wild ride on Friday but has settled down. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.54, up 0.05%. Yen swings wildly after BoJ tweaks yield curve control The Bank of Japan appears to relish catching the markets with its pants down, and I'll be the first to admit that I was shocked to read that the BoJ had made a shift in policy at today's policy meeting.

28-07-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

No major risk-off after BoJ’s creative YCC flexibility tweak

Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy but issued a lukewarm hawkish statement to introduce a “flexible” Yield Curve Control programme on the 10-year JGB yield. JPY strengthen but did not lead to a sell-off in other Asian benchmark stock indices. Nikkei 225 has managed to trim its intraday loss of -2.60% and ended with a smaller magnitude of -0.4%. Japanese banks outperformed; the TOPIX-17 Banks ETF rallied by +4.70%. The new YCC with “greater flexibility” may reduce specul

28-07-2023 04:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD - Euro sinks as ECB signals a September pause is possible

ECB hikes rates by 25 basis points Signals the central bank may pause at the next meeting in September Euro slides as eurozone yields fall The ECB raised rates for potentially the final time in the tightening cycle on Thursday, although it refused to give any indication of what will happen going forward. Instead, the central bank is insisting that decisions will be guided by the economic data and that interest rates will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time.

27-07-2023 10:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY Technical: Bulls rejected at 20-day moving average

The 20-day moving average has capped further upside in the USD/JPY so far since last Friday, 21 July. BoJ will release its monetary policy decision and latest quarterly outlook report tomorrow, 28 July. The consensus is an upgrade for its FY2023 consumer inflation forecast to be above 2% while maintaining the upper limit of the YCC at 0.50%. Recent minor downtrend phase from 21 July 2023 high of 141.95 to today, current intraday low of 139.38 may see a retracement. Key resistance zone at 140.70/

27-07-2023 05:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Fed tries to keep door open for more rate hikes

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the FOMC decision, preview the ECB, and recap mega-cap tech earnings.

26-07-2023 17:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar slips as the Fed is most likely done

Fed swaps show only an 18% chance of a hike in September (under 50% for November) FOMC to take data-dependent approach on future hikes Fed no longer forecasting a recession The dollar declined as US stocks embraced a patient Fed Chair Powell that will remain dependent with the next two inflation reports before committing to what they will do in September. The Fed is probably done raising rates and that is keeping soft landing hopes alive. Fed Decision The Fed raised rates by a quarter-percent

26-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Will the Fed deliver a dovish final hike or add a hawkish twist?

Fed and ECB will have a big role to play in EURUSD moves over the next 24 hours Will both offer a final dovish hike and emphasize data dependency? EURUSD faces a big test around 1.10 after breaking out earlier this month EURUSD is trading a little choppy over the last couple of days with traders clearly heavily focused on the outcome of the Fed and ECB meetings. In both cases, a 25 basis point rate hike is heavily backed in the markets, but at the same time, the language that accompanies the de

26-07-2023 11:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD quiet ahead of Fed decision

The euro is showing limited movement for a second consecutive day. In Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1063, up 0.07%. Is the Fed "one and done"? The Federal Reserve meets later today, and it's close to a certainty that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

26-07-2023 11:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY softens as yen hedges surge ahead of BOJ

Rate cut odds for the December FOMC meeting now stands at 15.1% vs 16% yesterday Protection against yen strength rises to a four-month high Bearish tones emerging for USD/JPY as top Ichimoku cloud tested The Japanese yen is catching modest bids here as stocks soften on Microsoft’s disappointing AI outlook and as pressure builds for the BOJ to tighten. Microsoft’s results were adequate, but that won’t be enough to keep the mega-cap tech/AI trade going. Profit taking will likely remain the

26-07-2023 10:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Forex: all news & analysis