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Podcast - US jobs report sends financial markets on a rollercoaster ride

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss Wall Street's reaction to a surprisingly robust US jobs report and why the dollar and stocks reversed course. They also review Canada's impressive jobs report and discuss crude's bad week despite the significant tightness in the oil market.

06-10-2023 14:46 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Canada's payroll report outperforms the US

Canada's economy added 63,800 jobs, in September more than tripled expectations Canadian wages rose 5.3% vs 5.1% eyed and a 5.2% prior BOC rate hike odds rise to 41.6% for the October 25th meeting North America had quite an impressive hiring spree in September. Much of the attention went to the US NFP report, but Canada quietly outperformed their neighbor. Canada delivered robust job and wage gains, while the US saw impressive hiring but softening wages. It is clear that FX markets are thinki

06-10-2023 13:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US inflation and earnings, central banker appearances in abundance

This week will deliver a make-or-break moment for Fed rate hike expectations. The main event will be the September inflation report. Expectations are for both headline and core inflation to post 0.3% month-over-month gains in September, while headline year-over-year inflation will drop a tick to 3.6% and core’s annual reading will ease from 4.3% to 4.1%. In September, gas prices were relatively stable, car prices rose, and some core services were sticky.

06-10-2023 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY: Hot NFP report sends dollar higher after US economy has best job growth since January

US jobs gains broadest since January; 336,000 created vs 170,000 eyed Wages unexpectedly came in cooler than expected; holding steady with a 0.2% monthly pace and on annual basis down from 4.3% to 4.2%. Dollar surges across the board with the exception to the Canadian dollar (Canada posted a robust 63,800 job gain themselves, tripling their consensus estimate).

06-10-2023 09:56 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD unchanged as Canada, US post strong job numbers

Canada records 63,800 jobs in September US nonfarm payrolls posts a massive gain of 336,000 Fed rate odds of a November hike rise sharply The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3705, almost unchanged.

06-10-2023 09:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro quiet ahead of US nonfarm payrolls

German Factory Orders rebound with 3.6% gain US nonfarm payrolls projected to ease to 170,000 The euro is almost flat on Friday after two straight daily gains. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0554, up 0.04%. Germany's economy is struggling, as the traditional locomotive of the eurozone is grappling with high inflation and weak growth.

06-10-2023 07:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar steady ahead of US jobs report

US nonfarm payrolls expected to slow to 170,000 RBA financial stability report points to trouble for householders The Australian dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6364, down 0.10%.

06-10-2023 04:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD: Bounce limited as RBNZ rate hike odds for November underwhelm

Fed's Daly (non-voter) noted that recent bond market tightening equals about 1 rate hike; if labor market cools, we can hold rates steady RBNZ rate hike expectations are between a hold or one more rate hike China's improving outlook could boost commodities The New Zealand central bank is keeping all their options open after keeping rates on hold this week, refraining to signaling that inflation outlook could warrant further tightening.

05-10-2023 16:04 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar stops nasty slide

Canada Ivey PMI remains in expansion territory Canada, US job reports expected to decline The Canadian dollar has steadied on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3728, down 0.12%. The Canadian currency has stabilized after a nasty four-day slide, in which it declined 1.9%.

05-10-2023 12:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: the king dollar trade and bond market selloff isn't over just yet

Bond futures traders wagers (open interest) hit record high; Bets are calling for a hike at November 1st meeting US jobless claims edge higher but still remain historically low levels Fed's Daly noted they can hold rates steady if labor, prices keep cooling The dollar is softening and stocks are slightly lower as calm emerges in the bond market. Wall Street is still seeing a lot of strength in the labor market.

05-10-2023 12:17 GMT by Edward Moya

Pound shrugs off soft Construction PMI

UK Construction PMI declines The British pound has ticked higher on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2149, up 0.09%. UK Construction PMI declines The UK Construction PMI fell to 45.0 in September, down significantly from 50.8 in August and below the consensus estimate of 49.9.

05-10-2023 09:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen steadies as intervention speculation subsides

USD/JPY drifting for a second straight day BoJ likely did not intervene in currency markets The Japanese yen has posted slight gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.97, down 0.10%. Yen spike was likely not due to intervention The yen has stabilized after a massive spike on Tuesday.

05-10-2023 06:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Retesting the 20-day moving average support with bearish momentum

USD/JPY Technical: Retesting the 20-day moving average support with bearish momentum Key technical elements have turned bearish for USD/JPY ex-post suspected BoJ’s invention. USD/JPY bulls’ first defence line at the 20-day moving average acting as a 148.25 support looks vulnerable. The next immediate support to watch will be at 146.10/146.00 This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY rallied to an 11-month high despite a rosy Q3 Tankan report and verbal interventions” published

05-10-2023 01:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Suspected yen intervention, mixed US data, OPEC+ meet

OANDA Senior Market Analyst joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the potential Japanese yen intervention, US economic data and the OPEC+ meeting.

04-10-2023 16:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD: Loonie weakness extends as oil prices drop

USD/CAD has been hit with heightened volatility given bond market chaos and the big moves in the oil market. The dollar rally has paused against euro and yen, but it continues against commodity currencies. Demand for all commodities are taking a hit here as surging Treasury yields are driving global growth concerns. Price action on the USD/CAD daily chart is showing the recent bullish rally is tentatively breaking above key trendline resistance that has been in place since the start of the pan

04-10-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD higher after mixed European releases

German Services PMI rises slightly Eurozone retail sales decline 1.2% The euro has stabilized on Wednesday and is in positive territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0519, up 0.50%. Germany's Services PMI expands slightly Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone.

04-10-2023 12:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD: Dollar follows bond market and hits ludicrous speed

ADP report shows job weakness occurred in September ISM Services report shows largest part of economy remains resilient Yields remain near session lows Wall Street is waking up to more FX and bond market chaos. Overnight, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5%, the highest level since 2007. With hedge funds aggressively riding this bond market selloff, Treasury yields blew right by ‘ridiculous’ speed and entered ‘ludicrous speed’. Heading into the NY open, the 30-year Treasury yield has rev

04-10-2023 10:24 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar pares losses as RBNZ pauses

RBNZ holds benchmark rate at 5.5% The New Zealand dollar has posted small losses on Wednesday. In Europe, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5901 in Europe, down 0.11%.

04-10-2023 08:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen spikes after breaching 150

USD/JPY breaches 150 but spikes lower BoJ may have intervened but no confirmation The Japanese yen is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 149.05 in the European session. This calmness is deceptive, however, as the yen had a massive spike on Tuesday after it breached the key 150 level. Did BoJ intervene? The Bank of Japan won't win any awards for transparency and has a knack of making significant moves that catch the market off guard.

04-10-2023 06:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nikkei 225 may see a silver lining from Japanese banks

The current second-half performance of the Nikkei 225 is considered wobbly as it recorded a Q3 loss of -4% and underperformed slightly against the US S&P 500. The recent lacklustre performance of the Nikkei 225 has been impacted significantly by the performance of the S&P 500 rather than JPY movement. In the past three months, Japanese banks have offered a silver lining in a bearish Nikkei 225 environment as the TOPIX Banks sector outperformed with a positive return of +13.22% Watch the 200-day

04-10-2023 03:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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