EUR/USD: Cautiously bullish above 1.1700 ahead of FOMC and ECB

• Overall Bias: The EUR/USD narrative has shifted from bearish to cautiously bullish
• Key Support: The bullish bias remains firm as long as the price sustains a hold above the critical 1.1700–1.1710 support zone.
• Tactical Scenarios: Bulls need to defend the 1.1700 area, with targets at 1.1769 and 1.1800; a break below 1.1700 triggers the bearish scenario.

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EUR/USD finds itself grinding on a quiet Monday ahead of what is a busy week from a data and monetary policy perspective.

EUR/USD gapped lower after the weekend but has since recovered the weekend losses and is trading marginally higher on the day. This sort of price action could continue in the early part of the week with volatility likely to peak on Wednesday and Thursday when we have the FOMC and ECB meetings.

Of course any deal between the US and Iran in the interim could also shake up volatility and could potentially lead to USD weakness as the safe haven bets may begin to unwind. Keep that in mind while reading the technical setups and opportunities that may materialize below.

On the H4 timeframe, the narrative has shifted from bearish to cautiously bullish. The most notable development is the price action reclaiming the 1.1700 psychological handle, which had previously acted as a stubborn ceiling.

The pair has successfully pushed above the 100, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (MAs). Currently price is rejecting the 50-day MA opening up a potential retest of the 100-day MA at 17047. A sustained hold above the 1.1700–1.1710 support zone keeps the bullish bias firmly intact.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently hovering around 54, suggesting there is ample "runway" left before the pair reaches overbought territory.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 27, 2026

Zooming into the H1 chart, we see a more granular view of the recent rally. The pair hit a local peak near 1.1754 (just shy of the 1.1769 resistance level) before edging lower.

Currently, the H1 price has rejected the 200-MA (blue line) as dynamic support. This is a critical junction; if the H1 can print a bullish engulfing candle or a long-wick rejection near this 1.1716-1.1700 area, it would signal that buyers are ready to defend the intraday trend.

The RSI on this timeframe has cooled off from overbought levels, effectively "resetting" for a potential move higher with some leeway for a drop toward 50 first.

EUR/USD One-Hour Chart, April 27, 2026

The Bullish Scenario: For the bulls to maintain control, they need to defend the 1.1710 - 1.1700 area. An ideal entry for a long position would be a successful retest of the M15 200-MA (blue line) followed by a break back above 1.1750.

• Target 1: 1.1769 (Recent high/Horizontal resistance).
• Target 2: 1.1800 (Psychological level).
• Invalidation: A 15-minute candle close below 1.1700.

The Bearish Scenario: The bears need to see a breakdown of the current consolidation. If the price fails to hold the 1.1700 level, we could see a "stop-run" back toward the primary support zone.

• Trigger: A break below 1.1700 would signal a deeper correction.
• Target 1: 1.1685.(Value area high).
• Target 2: 1.1643 April 8 swing low.
• Confirmation: Watch for the RSI on the M15 to drop below 50 to confirm momentum shift and look for an entry.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.1769, 1.1800, 1.1867.
• Support: 1.1700, 1.1680, 1.1643

EUR/USD M15 Chart, April 27, 2026

The overall technical posture for EUR/USD remains tilted to the upside as long as the pair remains above the 1.1700 pivot zone. Traders should keep a close eye on the US Dollar Index (DXY) for broader directional cues, but from a pure price action standpoint, the bulls appear to be in the driver's seat heading into the next session.

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