Asian stocks rose slightly on Thursday, and the dollar gained a bit as traders evaluated trade talks between the U.S. and Japan, while concerns over tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump kept the mood cautious.
Markets were also digesting comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell yesterday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a firm hawkish message, dismissing hopes for rate cuts despite inflation worries. He projected higher inflation and a weaker jobs market due to tariffs, while focusing mainly on inflation control. This stance, paired with Trump tolerating market volatility, is likely to leave equities under pressure.
Gold prices took a breather in the Asian session after printing a fresh high around $3357/oz in early Asian trade. At the time of writing Gold is trading at $3325/oz, down about 0.50% on the day. The move does not appear to be down to sentiment but could be due to profit taking ahead of the Easter break.
Oil prices rose slightly after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a comment that President Trump is ready to ensure Iran's oil exports drop to zero. Oil is on course for another weekly gain.
As we head into the European session, sentiment remains fragile after TSMC noted that Trump policies would hurt growth.
TSMC’s net income jumped 60.3% from last year to NT$361.56 billion, and its revenue grew 41.6% in the March quarter to NT$839.25 billion. However, the company is facing challenges due to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, which include tariffs on Taiwan and stricter export rules for its clients Nvidia and AMD.
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Economic data releases
From a data perspective, the major event for the European session will be the ECB meeting today with a rate cut likely in my opinion. Market participants have for a long period been pricing in a 25bps cut, so the euro is unlikely to be strongly affected.
There is no reason why the Euro cannot extend its gains against the US Dollar, barring a strong recovery from the Greenback.
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Chart of the day - Crude Oil
From a technical standpoint, crude oil prices have broken above a significant resistance level after comments on Iranian oil by US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
After a period of consolidation, are oil prices ready to explode?
Explode might be the wrong word given the fragile sentiment markets are currently experiencing. From a technical standpoint though the break of the 66.42 handle is significant as crude has spent the majority of April testing this level.
There is significant resistance ahead and with global dynamics still a worry there is a chance that the breakout may not have the legs to continue.
If a move higher materializes, immediate resistance may be found at 68.17, 68.58 and of course the psychological 70.00 handle.
A move lower which we are seeing in early European trade, could bring support at 64.36, 62.81 and 61.00 into focus.
Crude Oil Four-Hour (H4) Chart, April 17, 2025
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
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