Oil
It’s going to take a lot to change the minds of energy traders. Fears of a weaker global growth outlook are not going away anytime soon.
27-06-2023 14:26 GMT
by Edward Moya
Cryptos: all news & analysis
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It's been a relatively slow start to the week so far but things are likely to pick up with more appearances from prominent central bankers and key data due for release in the coming days.
Equity markets are a little higher early in the European session after what has been a tough couple of weeks. Stubborn inflation has investors concerned that there may be a much heavier economic price to pay for restoring price stability which appears to have shaken confidence a little.
Not only are more rate h
27-06-2023 04:29 GMT
by Craig Erlam
While Europe appears at great risk for a recession as traders bet on aggressive rate rises by all the European central banks, the Fed is still expected to be nearing the end of their respective rate hiking campaign. The focus in the US will fall on the PCE readings. If inflation comes down as expected, the swap futures might grow even more confident that the Fed will only deliver one more rate hike.
23-06-2023 15:16 GMT
by Edward Moya
Recession risks drive safe-haven flows gold's way
Oil has worst weekly decline since May
Bitcoin tests highest level in a year
Oil
Oil prices are declining on fears that a European recession and delayed stimulus from China will spell trouble for the global growth outlook. Next week, the heads of the major central banks will gather in Portugal and likely signal a commitment to tackle inflation with aggressive rate hikes.
Energy traders are worried that the Fed and friends might cripple econom
23-06-2023 10:32 GMT
by Edward Moya
Oil
Oil prices are going to remain heavy as central bank tightening will kill the global growth outlook. Energy traders will keep a close eye on today’s stockpile that might show a modest draw. The oil market will remain heavy until European inflation eases. Brent crude could make a run towards the $70 region but should rebound once we finally see significant easing come from Beijing.
A bullish EIA crude oil inventory report was unable to stop WTI crude's selling pressure. Stockpiles decl
22-06-2023 13:39 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest interest rate decisions from the BoE, SNB, and CBRT, Wednesday's testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and bitcoin hitting $30,000.
22-06-2023 10:29 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Dollar drops after 3-day rally
Powell remains hawkish; bringing down inflation has a long way to go
Fed swaps price in a 69.2% chance of a hike at the July 26th FOMC meeting
US stocks declined as Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the House affirmed the Fed’s threat of higher rates to combat inflation. Wall Street should not have been surprised by Fed Chair Powell’s commitment to vanquish inflation, but swap futures are still only pricing in one more rate hike. Powell reiterated that the economy
21-06-2023 16:41 GMT
by Edward Moya
Stock markets remain slightly in the red on Tuesday but activity should pick up with the return of Wall Street from the long bank holiday weekend.
The focus this week remains on the central banks and whether we are as close to the end of the tightening cycle as everyone wants to believe. While there is the temptation to take what the Fed and others say with a small pinch of salt given their record over the last couple of years and the fact that any pivot was always likely to come late, they hav
20-06-2023 04:49 GMT
by Craig Erlam
It's been a quiet start to the week with stocks edging lower in light trade due to the US bank holiday.
It feels like last week may have left us with more questions than answers in that the US inflation data was ok, not great, the Fed paused while forecasting multiple more hikes, and the ECB hiked while insisting more is to come.
Now it's up to the BoE to continue its firefighting mission; one that is at risk of getting out of control despite the MPC's efforts to contain it. Of all the major e
19-06-2023 13:25 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Markets are ending the week on a positive note but there remains enormous uncertainty around inflation and interest rates that looks set to continue throughout the summer.
Expectations are changing considerably on a very regular basis, with markets now pricing in no rate cuts in the US this year but a strong chance of one more hike, which still falls short of the median two from the Fed dot plot. The central bank opted to buy itself time on Wednesday which may prove to be a good decision given t
16-06-2023 11:10 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil volatile near lows
Oil prices remain volatile after inventory data published by EIA reported a substantial 7.9 million barrel build last week. Brent saw its gains on the day wiped out while WTI slipped back below $70.
15-06-2023 12:26 GMT
by Craig Erlam
China's oil demand stood at 14.6 million bpd, +17% y/y, but down from a month ago
Strong dollar killing gold as more rate hikes penciled in by Fed
Global crypto market barely holds onto the $1 trillion level, down 3.5% to $1.02T
Oil
Crude prices are trying to find support as the global growth outlook remains vulnerable to further shocks from aggressive rate hiking campaigns. The Fed will keep the short-term outlook volatile as they are eyeing further rate hikes, while China rushes to deliver s
15-06-2023 10:30 GMT
by Edward Moya
The big day has finally arrived and investors are seemingly in quite an upbeat mood going into the Fed interest rate decision.
The inflation data on Tuesday appears to have settled any remaining Fed nerves with markets now pricing in more than a 90% chance that the central bank leaves rates unchanged.
That seems a little overconfident given the data as a whole still paints quite a resilient and stubborn picture which could result in markets being caught out by a final hike, especially following
14-06-2023 12:08 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil's 4% drop takes prices to a three-month low
Gold lower but still holding key range
Bitcoin remains heavy as some traders move to DeFi exchanges
Oil
Oil has easily become a favorite short on Wall Street. The oil market doesn't appear like it will get tight anytime soon on fears that China’s weak post-COVID recovery won’t be improving anytime soon and as Russia continues to sell more oil to China and India. In addition to all the bearish drivers, some notable oil bulls are abandoning their a
12-06-2023 15:51 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the start of the start of a new bull market, China's inflation data, Canada's employment report, and recap this week in crypto.
09-06-2023 12:50 GMT
by Edward Moya
European stocks ended the day relatively flat while tech is enjoying a bounce in the US on the back of a spike in jobless claims, perhaps an early sign of the labor market weakening.
A well-timed spike in US jobless claims
Jobless claims spiked last week in what could be the start of another trend higher after stabilizing over the last few months. Claims had been expected to rise much earlier than this but for one reason or another, they've stayed remarkably steady.
08-06-2023 13:41 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the big stories of the day. They talk about the Chinese trade data, Australia GDP, Bank of Canada, Oil, Gold and the SEC lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase.
07-06-2023 14:29 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Gensler "These trading platforms, they call themselves exchanges, are commingling a number of functions"
Gensler "Look, we don’t need more digital currency"
Bitcoin rebounds after falling to lowest levels since March
The SEC looks like it is playing Whac-A-Mole with crypto exchanges. The first crypto exchange to get the regulatory hammer was Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. The next crypto exchange to get hit with an SEC lawsuit was Coinbase and it seems like this is just the beg
06-06-2023 12:53 GMT
by Edward Moya
Saudis raises prices to Asia after surprise solo-output cut
Gold rises as Fed hike odds edge lower after soft ISM services report
SEC goes after Binance and CZ
Oil
The Saudis are going at it alone in doing whatever it takes to stabilize oil prices. The Saudi problem is that energy traders aren’t believing the kingdom has enough power to sway all OPEC+ to deliver meaningful action. The Sunday decision to deliver a solo-cut triggered a near 5% jump on the open, but that quickly disappeared.
05-06-2023 14:01 GMT
by Edward Moya
A raft of weaker services surveys have weighed on sentiment in Europe at the start of the week while Wall Street is more of a mixed bag.
Investors are still digesting Friday's jobs report which didn't settle the debate on whether the Fed should pause or not ahead of the meeting next week. There were positives and negatives in the report but ultimately now it comes down to the inflation data next week.
The services PMIs today have broadly disappointed despite remaining in a healthy position.
05-06-2023 12:15 GMT
by Craig Erlam