Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in oil in the aftermath of the OPEC+ output cut a few weeks ago.
28-04-2023 19:05 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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US
This week will be extremely busy as we have an FOMC decision, the nonfarm payroll report, peak earnings season, all while Wall Street keeps an eye on the banking industry to see if any news stresses arise. The FOMC meeting is expected to have policymakers deliver one more quarter-point rate rise, possibly leaving the door open for one more. Disinflation trends need to show they are firmly entrenched for the Fed to take their foot off the tightening pedals.
28-04-2023 15:42 GMT
by Edward Moya
US Oil rig counts rise by two to 591 (Gas rigs up 2 to 161)
Gold sub $2000 as yields slide, 10-year Treasury yield falls 8.1 bps to 3.439%
Bitcoin falls 1% to $29,344
Oil
The oil market selloff got out of control. Technical selling was not going to end until they filled the gap made from the OPEC+ production cut announcement earlier this month. The pulse of the US economy is not too bad if you ask the Atlanta Fed and if the US economy comes anywhere close to growing at 1.7% in the second qua
28-04-2023 15:22 GMT
by Edward Moya
Fed rate hike odds are now once again pricing in a quarter-point rate rise by mid-year
Fed's preferred core gauge of prices hit the quickest pace in a year
2-year Treasury yield rises 14.4 basis points to 4.095%
US stocks are rallying on strong earnings and on optimism that the economy will gradually soften and bring down inflation. The Fed will be able to move forward with one, perhaps two more rate hikes, but then that should be it.
27-04-2023 14:49 GMT
by Edward Moya
Conflicting macro news flow has capped gold in a short-term range-bound movement.
1-year rolling uptrend of gold versus most major fiat currencies remains intact.
Lower 10-year US Treasury real yield may provide an impetus for gold bulls.
The recent movement in the price of gold has started to falter from its recent 52-week high of US$2,048 per ounce reached on 13 April 2023.
27-04-2023 03:33 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Oil tumbles on recessionary fears
Gold struggles as yields push higher
Bitcoin recaptures $29,000
Oil
Crude prices just saw all of its gains from the OPEC+ surprise production cut erased as macro backdrop has become a disaster. Oil has been in freefall over a challenging economic environment, banking jitters, disappointment with China’s reopening, fears of overtightening by the Fed, and on expectation Permian basin production has yet to peak.
WTI crude pared losses after a bullish EIA report sh
26-04-2023 15:26 GMT
by Edward Moya
Oil getting crushed as the demand outlook continues to deteriorate
Gold surges as Fed hike bets no longer fully price in a quarter-point rate rise
Bitcoin finds some tentative support at the $27,200 level
Oil
Oil prices slumped as the dollar rallied and crude demand signals remained mostly bearish as Halliburton signaled that customers are clearly motivated to produce more oil and gas. The one positive news for crude was the upbeat outlook from JetBlue on robust demand trends in the second quar
25-04-2023 14:36 GMT
by Edward Moya
Calls for $100 oil premature
Oil prices are slipping again on Tuesday after paring losses over the last couple of sessions. It would appear crude prices have now settled back into their pre-OPEC+ intervention trading ranges, with Brent between $78-$88 and WTI $73-$83.
The move lower today could even be another push to close the OPEC+ gap from a few weeks ago after falling just short late last week.
25-04-2023 09:17 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil tentatively finds a bottom on improving demand optimism
Gold stuck in a tight range; hovering around $2000 level
Bitcoin traders remain in wait-and-see mode on the regulatory front
Oil
Crude prices rebounded after a better-than-expected German sentiment report and as energy traders started to see Europe struggle to reliably replace Russian crude supplies. Last week, oil’s rough week had too many holes poked into the short-term crude outlook, but some of that pessimism might go away this we
24-04-2023 15:38 GMT
by Edward Moya
Uncertain outlook weighs on crude as prices almost close the post-OPEC+ gap
Oil prices are a little higher at the start of the week, bouncing back after largely closing the post-OEPC+ gap from a few weeks ago. Prices came within a whisker of doing so and could potentially attempt to again.
24-04-2023 13:49 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Was OPEC+ correct to cut production as the price tumbles once more?
Oil prices are slipping further at the end of the week and looking increasingly likely to close the post-OPEC+ gap. The gap a few weeks ago came after the cartel announced a surprise output cut over the weekend triggering a gap open on Monday.
21-04-2023 07:33 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil's $2 drop on weakening outlook
Gold higher on Debt drama and earnings risk
Bitcoin lower on risk aversion and regulatory risks
Oil
Oil is getting crushed as Wall Street starts to get a steady stream of disappointing outlooks and on concerns that sentiment with China’s households and business might not be as robust as some are thinking. China may still need to ease and until they do so, investors might not be fully optimistic about the outlook for China.
Today is mostly a risk aversion ses
20-04-2023 14:42 GMT
by Edward Moya
Is oil looking to close the gap?
We're continuing to see a correction in oil prices following a more than 2% decline on Wednesday. That saw the price move below the post-OPEC+ cut lows from a couple of weeks ago and move into the void left by that surprise announcement.
Now it's a question of whether that gap will be filled, with the high from the Friday before falling just shy of $76 in WTI and $78 in Brent.
20-04-2023 07:36 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil's worst slide in a month as demand concerns grow
Surging yields weigh on gold
Binance had a 16,000 bitcoin sell order before the 4am plunge
Oil
Oil prices declined as the dollar rebounded and after a mixed oil inventory report raised demand concerns. Gasoline demand showed unexpected weakness as inventories posted a surprise build of 1.3 million bpd vs an expected drop of 1.5 million bpd. The headline draw of 4.5 million barrels was larger-than-expected, but that was because it was the
19-04-2023 17:00 GMT
by Edward Moya
Oil testing post-OPEC+ gap open
Oil prices are off almost 2% today and earlier tested the gap open from a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of the surprise weekend OPEC+ output cut which propelled the price back towards the highs of the previous few months, where it has since hovered around.
Today's sell-off comes on the back of some selling pressure yesterday following the Chinese industrial production data and slightly more hawkish expectations on interest rates.
19-04-2023 08:05 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil
Oil struggled early as the details behind China’s impressive first quarter included lackluster March industrial output. A key German investor sentiment survey also weighed on crude, as optimism for the eurozone’s largest economy remains downbeat in the coming quarters. Oil isn't getting any good news here and that means prices could continue to hover around the $80 a barrel level, or even see a tentative dip below if sellers get some help from a strong dollar.
The initial wave of weakness
18-04-2023 12:29 GMT
by Edward Moya
Can oil break above five-month range after OPEC+ cut
Oil is continuing to tread water around the five-month highs, an area it has failed to surpass in the aftermath of the latest OPEC+ output cut. Rather than propel the price towards $100 as some feared (it could still happen, of course), the decision appears to have just moved the price back to previous ranges that the cartel was seemingly comfortable with.
The next step may depend on global growth and whether the economy can weather the recent
18-04-2023 03:46 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Energy traders await Key China data
Gold down but not out
Crypto down on strong dollar and easing banking turmoil
Oil
Crude prices are in trouble as the dollar appears poised for a major rebound as the Fed might be in position to do a lot more tightening. The economy is showing resilience and while normally that is good news for the crude demand outlook, that is disrupting calls for a peak in Fed tightening.
The oil market will soon have to deal with recession fears but for now it should be a
17-04-2023 16:06 GMT
by Edward Moya
The first few banks are delivering a strong start to earnings season, reigniting soft landing calls, while large parts of Wall Street remain confident that the economy is recession bound as expectations remain that banking turmoil will persist. Fed rate cut bets for later in the year have steadily increased and that has kept the dollar under pressure.
14-04-2023 15:58 GMT
by Edward Moya
Oil shrugs off OPEC demand warnings
Gold tumbles after failing to reach record highs
Ethereum momentum remains post Shapella upgrade
Oil
Oil’s fourth weekly advance has been mostly relentless as the OPEC+ output cut has sent global oil markets to a very deep supply deficit. The risk of a couple million-barrel deficit in the second half of the year should keep prices supported regardless of whatever noise emerges from the Fed contemplating another quarter-point or so in rate hikes.
Energy trad
14-04-2023 15:16 GMT
by Edward Moya