Commodities: all news & analysis

Explore our extensive commodities news, which unveils critical insights into price movements, trends, and expert forecasts in the raw materials market. By examining price actions and understanding the factors influencing commodity values, understand current market dynamics. This page is designed to boost your research on historical trends, identify seasonal patterns, and sharpen your trading strategies across sectors such as energy, metals, and agriculture. Equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to enhance your understanding of the commodities landscape and elevate your trading decisions.

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Podcast - China deflation, US inflation preview, gas price spike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US CPI data and what it means, preview the US CPI release and cover the spike in gas prices.

10-08-2023 03:23 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY higher on strong demand for 10-year notes; Commodities diverge

Thursday's inflation report to seal the deal for a Fed hold in September Treasury sells 10-year notes with strong demand as yields drop China deflation raises prospects of more stimulus USD/JPY rose after a strong auction signaled that Wall Street is very confident that inflation will continue to fall. It looks like investors will gladly be eating all the extra issuance that comes from the Treasury.

09-08-2023 15:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Drifts lower pressured by higher yields

Higher yields push gold lower Could the US CPI be a game-changer? A break of June lows could be very bearish The second half of the summer hasn't been kind to gold so far, with the yellow metal coming close to $2,000 once more before plunging back toward $1,900 where it spent most of late June and early July. Higher yields, particularly in the US, and a stronger dollar have been primarily responsible for this but there's probably also an element of uncertainty in the economic data that's making

09-08-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Another recovery but it's far from convincing

Chinese trade data only a temporary distraction Recovery not as bullish as it first appears Divergence a red flag Oil prices are advancing again today after briefly dipping on Tuesday following some weaker Chinese trade figures. While that data did appear to trigger some profit-taking in crude, it was never going to be a game-changer as oil market dynamics have turned much more bullish recently. Furthermore, weak global trade and an uninspiring Chinese rebound this year are not new stories.

09-08-2023 10:37 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - China data weighs on oil prices

Chinese trade data disappoints again Saudi and Russian cuts continue to support prices Divergence a potential red flag The data from China appears to be weighing on oil prices today, which is understandable with it being the world's second-largest economy. Still, oil remains not far from yesterday's highs, having recovered more than 20% since late June.

08-08-2023 16:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD finds support after Fed's Harker suggests rate hikes might be over

Fed rate hike odds stumble (Sept at 13.0% of a hike, November at 20.2%) Fed's Harker will may be at a point where it can hold rates steady Fed's Barkin notes inflation remains too high Risk aversion was providing the dollar with some momentum but that move might have been exhausted after Fed's Harker signaled they could be done raising rates. Harker noted, "Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady

08-08-2023 09:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Strong dollar sends oil and gold lower; AUD declines on expected Chinese weakness

China increased gold holdings for a ninth straight month in July Oil unfazed as Ukraine sea attack Russian oil tanker didn't lead to a major disruption Dollar supported amidst bond supply concerns; 10-year Treasury yield rises 3.8bps to 4.074% Oil Crude prices are lower following a surge in the US dollar and as Saudi Arabia anticipates a bumpy road for the crude demand. The Saudis are raising prices across most of Asia and Europe, with the Arab light crude only being boosted by 30 cents, which

07-08-2023 11:13 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Will US core CPI stay at the lowest levels since 2021?

Everyone will be watching the US inflation report as a cool report could help support soft landing hopes and seal the deal for some that the Fed is done raising rates. Expectations for the July inflation report is for headline inflation to rise towards the mid-3% range, while core inflation remains steady and holding onto the lowest levels since 2021 on both a monthly basis at 0.2% and at 4.8% from a year ago.

04-08-2023 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Loonie rallies as wages accelerate and oil price rally continues

Canada lost 6,400 jobs in July as the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month Canadian wage pressures jump to 5.0%, which might not let policymakers signal that the peak in rates is in place Crude prices rally for a sixth straight week on OPEC+ determination to keep oil market tight USD/CAD The past few weeks have not been kind to the Canadian dollar, but that could be changing. The general rise in the dollar has stemmed from concerns over the US debt situation. With both the Fed

04-08-2023 12:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Strong USD sends gold to a 3-week low

Crude prices rally after Saudis signal output cuts can be extended or deepened Gold struggles as bond market selloff extends; 10-year Treasury rises 11.4bps to 4.191% Bitcoin's tight range narrows to $28,900 to $30,100 Oil Crude prices rallied after the Saudis did what everyone expected them to do, they extended output cuts. The Saudis are doing whatever it takes to defend oil prices and that could mean we could be seeing $90 oil soon. The only thing getting in oil’s way is a weakening global

03-08-2023 15:35 GMT by Edward Moya

King Dollar returns and takes down Commodities and their Currencies

USD surges as 10-year Treasury rises 4.4bps to 4.067%, highest level since November Oil unable to rally after US crude stockpiles dropped by a record 17 million barrels last week Gold slumps after hot ADP report keeps markets divided on whether Fed will tighten again AUD/USD, NZD, USD, and USD/CAD are all seeing a tentative return of the king dollar trade. The dollar is rallying on safe-haven flows following Fitch's US sovereign rating downgrade. The surge in Treasury yields is also supportin

02-08-2023 14:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Dollar rises on US credit rating downgraded, Treasury issuance, and ADP jobs boost

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart to discuss the Fitch's US Sovereign rating downgrade, a hot ADP private payrolls report, and the EIA's record inventory draw.

02-08-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD and Commodities decline as Dollar rally resumes

Traders push back RBA rate hike bets until November WTI and Brent crude implied volatility falls to lowest since 2020 Turkey unloads significant portion of gold holdings The Australian dollar tumbled after the RBA kept rates on hold again and signaled they might be done tightening. Given most economists expected a hike, aussie-dollar was ripe for a plunge. US dollar strength also supported the decline after the Treasury increased their net borrowing estimate. Oil The oil price rally is re

01-08-2023 15:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil and loonie flying high together again

Oil poised for best monthly performance since early 2022 Net-long positions in WTI rise to highest levels in 3 months Goldman says global oil demand has surpassed peak set just before COVID-19 USD/CAD Canadian dollar Oil and the loonie are flying high again as global growth prospects improve and on optimism the Fed is done tightening. The Canadian dollar was weakening last week on fears that the BOC's tightening cycle is starting to weigh on the economy. That outlook might change if China

31-07-2023 13:27 GMT by Edward Moya

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Video - Gold steadies after Fed interest rate decision

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in gold on the back of the Fed's interest rate hike.

28-07-2023 05:16 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil rally stalls as demand softens, Gold rises post Fed

EIA Report: stockpiles dropped 600K vs -2.12M eyed Crude production falls to 12.2 million bpd (lower boundaries of this year's range) Gold struggles as Fed leaves door open for more hikes Oil Crude prices softened after the EIA crude oil inventory report stockpiles fell less-than-expected as surging gasoline prices weighed on demand. Gas is almost over 10 cents a gallon according to AAA and that rising trend might continue going to the end of summer. Crude exports also rose above the 4 milli

26-07-2023 15:29 GMT by Edward Moya

FOMC day, look out for Fed Chair Powell’s view on inflationary expectations

Current slowdown in inflationary growth has led to lower odds of another Fed Funds rate hike after today’s FOMC. Inflationary expectations measured by US breakeven inflation rates have started to tick higher since the end of May, in line with the 19% rally seen in WTI crude oil futures. If rising inflationary expectations are left unchecked, it may spiral into the real economy with a potential upside reversal in the lagging CPI data in the coming months. The US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will

26-07-2023 02:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar struggles to rise alongside oil

USD/CAD little changed ahead of FOMC decision Canadian dollar was fourth-worst performer in the Group-of-10 currencies. Oil rallies on improved global outlook and Chinese stimulus Gold awaits the Fed decision Commodities and some commodity currencies caught a bid after China policymakers signaled more stimulus would soon help their struggling recovery, but that didn't help the Canadian dollar. Canada's largest export has seen oil prices catch a bid over the past month, while the loonie has

25-07-2023 15:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold Technical: Holding above 50-day moving average

Medium-term uptrend of Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact. Its recent slide of -1.7% from the 20 July 2023 high of US$1,987.53 has pull-backed close to its 50-day moving average. Short-term elements suggest a potential bullish reversal for Gold (XAU/USD) with key support at US$1,939. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk” published on 11 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the bullish breakout above US$1,940 and

25-07-2023 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil reaches 3-month high, Gold and Bitcoin edge lower

Oil Crude prices are tentatively breaking out as expectations remain for the oil market to remain tight despite all global weakness that is emerging. The rally in crude oil is impressive as it occurs as Europe is looking very weak right now, the US is slowing down, and China’s Politburo isn’t expected to unveil major stimulus this week. Oil is also getting a boost from Wall Street as optimism grows the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign appears it could be here. With Europe lagging by a c

24-07-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

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