Week Ahead – Inflation issues sinking in


Disinflation trends are struggling and now Wall Street will look to see if improving manufacturing and service activity will further fuel pricing pressures. On Monday, durable goods data for January is expected to show higher borrowing costs are hurting manufacturers. Wall Street will also get a couple of Fed regional surveys from Dallas and Richmond.  Traders will pay close attention to Wednesday’s ISM manufacturing report and Friday’s Services Index.  

Central bank speak will be closely monitored, especially new Fed member Goolsbee’s comments on Tuesday.  Jefferson will speak on inflation and the dual mandate on Monday, while Waller will talk about the outlook on Thursday. On Friday, we will hear from Logan, Bostic, and Bowman.  

US President Biden will also host German Chancellor Scholz at the White House. Traders will look to see if they announce any new efforts to support Ukraine or sanctions against Russia.  

Earnings season continues with key updates from Bayer, Berkshire Hathaway, Broadcom, Budweiser Brewing Co. Apac, Costco Wholesale, CRH, Dell Technologies, Dollar Tree, HP, Kroger, Kuehne + Nagel International, Lowe’s, Merck, National Bank of Canada, Occidental Petroleum, Salesforce, Toronto-Dominion Bank,  VMware, and Workday.


Next week offers a number of economic data points, the most notable of which will be the flash HICP readings. While headline inflation has been falling, core remains at the peak and policymakers are unlikely to ease off the brake until they’re seeing progress on this front. Forecasts suggest it’s still a little early for that. Markets are still pricing in a 50 basis point hike at the meeting in March although there’s an almost equal chance of 75, based on current rates.

Which brings us nicely to the central bank speak, kicking off with President Lagarde who’s due to appear at the G20 conference over the weekend. 


It’s all a bit calm next week, with central bank appearances the most notable thing on the calendar. That includes Governor Bailey on Wednesday and Chief Economist Pill on Thursday. With 25 basis points almost entirely priced in for March and the committee clearly a little divided on the correct path going forward, I’m not sure what they could say that would cause much of a shock at this point.


Unemployment is expected to have jumped to 4% in January, from 3.7% the month before. Meanwhile PMIs on manufacturing and services on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, will be eyed.

South Africa

A quiet week in store with unemployment the only notable release.


The CBRT cut rates last week by an unusually modest 50 basis points, taking the repo rate to 8.5%. Inflation remains extraordinarily high, with the official rate released by the Turkish Statistical Institute, sitting at 57.68%. The February reading will be released on Friday, while GDP data is due on Tuesday.  


A selection of data points will be eyed this upcoming week which should give an up-to-date view on the state of the economy. The week will start with GDP data on Tuesday for the fourth quarter, alongside the KOF indicator for February. This will be followed by retail sales for January and the manufacturing PMI for February on Wednesday. 


The official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for January will be released on Wednesday, in what will otherwise be a relatively quiet week. Of course, all eyes are on the transition and how quickly and strongly the economy will bounce back, with stimulus measures over the next couple of months likely to turbo-charge the recovery.


GDP and PMI data eyed next week, with the economy seen performing strongly again in the third quarter and surveys indicating ongoing optimism. 

Australia & New Zealand

The RBNZ’s first interest rate meeting of the year last week was in line with market expectations of another 50 basis point hike. The central bank minutes mentioned that a potential recession in the second quarter of this year might occur, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

Focus this week will be on Australian retail sales data for January and GDP for the fourth quarter, and New Zealand retail sales for the fourth quarter.


According to Japanese lawmakers, BOJ Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda is to speak in the upper house on 27 February, and deputy governor nominees are to appear in the upper house on 28 February. Ueda will attend the hearing at the National Diet and give a speech, which may have an impact on Japanese markets. 

Retail Sales and the Tokyo core CPI will be in focus next week.


Retail sales and the February PMI survey are the only releases of note.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Feb. 25

Economic Events

Berkshire Hathaway reports earnings  

G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors conclude meetings

Sunday, Feb. 26

Economic Events

German Chancellor Scholz meets with Indian PM Modi

Japan’s ruling LDP holds its annual convention

Monday, Feb. 27

Economic Data/Events

US durable goods

Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence

Hong Kong trade

Israel unemployment

Japan BOJ outright bond purchases

Mexico trade

US Congress returns after a recess

US Treasury Secretary Yellen talks with President Zelenskiy

ECB chief economist Lane speaks on “Macro-Financial Stability in the EU”

ECB’s de Cos speaks at EIB event in Luxembourg

BOE’s Broadbent speaks at a digital technologies conference in London

Tuesday, Feb. 28

Economic Data/Events

US wholesale inventories, Conference Board consumer confidence

Australia current account, retail sales

Canada GDP

Finland GDP

France CPI, GDP

India GDP

Japan industrial production, retail sales

Mexico international reserves

Singapore unemployment

South Africa unemployment, trade balance

Sweden GDP

Switzerland GDP

Thailand trade

Turkey GDP

Chevron investor day

Mayoral election in Chicago

New Fed member Goolsbee speaks at Ivy Tech Community College

BOE chief economist Huw Pill makes closing remarks at digital technologies conference

BOE’s Mann and ECB’s Vujcic speak at the EIB forum in Luxembourg

Earnings from Target

Wednesday, March 1

Economic Data/Events

US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, light vehicle sales

Australia GDP

China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI

European Manufacturing PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK

Germany CPI, unemployment

India Manufacturing PMI

New Zealand building permits

Russia unemployment

Start of the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)

Bundesbank publishes annual report

BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks in Fukushima

BOE Governor Bailey speaks at a conference focused on the cost of living crisis

ECB’s Villeroy speaks at the French National Assembly’s finance committee

ECB’s Visco speaks in Frankfurt

Earnings reports from Dollar Tree, Kohl’s, Salesforce, and Lowe’s  

Thursday, March 2

Economic Data/Events

Australia building approvals

Brazil GDP

Eurozone CPI, unemployment

Hong Kong retail sales

Hungary GDP

Italy CPI, unemployment

Japan capital spending

Mexico unemployment

South Korea industrial production

Spain unemployment

Sri Lanka rate decision

US initial jobless claims

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Market Structure event in New York. Speakers include Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler and NYSE COO Michael Blaugrund

The due date for the DOJ’s amicus brief with its view on Donald Trump’s claim that he should get absolute immunity against civil lawsuits seeking to hold him liable for the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol

ECB publishes accounts of February policy meeting

Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata gives speech in Kanagawa

BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economic outlook

Retail earnings continue with Macy’s, Costco, and Nordstrom all reporting

Friday, March 3

Economic Data/Events

US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz meet at the White House

China Caixin services PMI

Czech Republic GDP

Eurozone Services PMI, PPI

France industrial production

Italy GDP

Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI

Singapore retail sales

ECB’s Vasle and Muller speak on inflation

Italian PM Meloni visits Abu Dhabi

BOE’s Hauser speaks at a workshop on market dysfunction hosted by the Initiative on Global Markets in Chicago

Sovereign Rating Updates

Austria (Fitch)

Czech Republic (Fitch)

Hungary (Moody’s)

European Union (DBRS)

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.