The Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey results from October 23-27th (528 respondents including me)
- October MLIV Pulse saw dollar enthusiasm eased from the 60% peak to 59%.
- The Nasdaq 100 will decline by as much as 10% this quarter, according to 45%
- 85% believe the so-called real neutral rate – which strips out the effect of inflation- has risen to around 100 basis points or higher, from estimate of about 50bps
- 10-year Treasury rose 4.3 bps to 4.879%
At the beginning of the month, plenty of top investment banks were making aggressive dollar bullish calls. It seem everyone was either picking 1.02 or parity for the EUR/USD currency pair. The euro has shown some resilience and that his leading to some cautiousness with king dollar calls. The dollar trade got a bit crowded but if this week’s fireworks send yields skyrocketing, the dollar should reign supreme. If the Fed’s higher for longer ends up pricing in another quarter or half point in hikes, that could be enough to send the euro to parity.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
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