Soft open for US stocks ahead of key labor/service data

• China President Xi tells military to firmly safeguard sovereignty and to strengthen military drills
• Tesla and China’s top car manufacturers pledge to avoid ‘abnormal pricing’
• Fed rate hike expectations for the July 26th meeting stand at 85.3%, up from 81.1% at the end of last week.

Us stocks are poised for a soft open as global recession fears sink risk appetite ahead of a few key labor and service economic reports.  The Fed Minutes did no favors for sentiment as officials favor a July rate increase and as they project a recession to start at the end of 2023.  In Asia, risk appetite took a hit after China denied reports that China banks will be offering loans to local government financing vehicle loans to avert a credit crunch.  

It will be a busy morning as traders pay close attention to ADP employment change, trade data, initial jobless claims, JOLTS job openings, and the ISM services Index.  

Treasury yields are rising on expectations the labor market will slowly cool.  UK Gilts are surging as inflation risks remain elevated and as traders anticipate a peak rate north of 6.435%.  

Yellen in China

Treasury Secretary Yellen’s trip to China won’t yield any breakthroughs or compromise on some of the major issues, but it will restart the dialogue amongst the two largest economies.  US-China tensions won’t be easing but this trip could lead to some stability with some of the geopolitical risks. Yellen will be in Beijing through July 9th. 

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