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Oil rebounds on weaker dollar, Gold wavers, Bitcoin off two-month lows

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  • Oil falls $10 since beginning of the year
  • Gold steadies after three-day drop
  • Crypto ETFs see $163 million in net outflows in the past month

Oil

Crude prices pared gains after a disappointing Empire State manufacturing report showed the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking campaign is starting to really knock down the economy.  Turkey’s Ceyhan port has yet to resume flows with Baghdad, and government approval might take longer given the lack of clarity with the presidential election. 

The dollar rally has taken a break and that should provide some relief for crude prices, but if the economy shows further signs that growth is plunging, oil prices could remain heavy. 

Gold

Gold might be ready to make another run to record high territory as investors should be prepared for debt limit talks to hit several major roadblocks.  The US economy is also showing signs it is starting to feel the impact of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign after the Empire Manufacturing survey plunged. 

What might complicate gold’s gains is if stagflation signs grow and the risks of more Fed tightening get justified.  Over the short-term, gold still looks attractive given all the uncertainty with US default risks. 

Bitcoin

After falling to a two-month low, Bitcoin found support after tentatively falling below the $26,000 level.  Upcoming debt ceiling talks will tell us a lot if investors believe Bitcoin can behave more of a safe-haven despite all the regulatory uncertainty. 

Bitcoin seems poised to stay in a range, but if risk aversion triggers a de-risking moment, we could see selling pressure extend below last week’s low.    

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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