Oil rally stalls as demand softens, Gold rises post Fed

  • EIA Report: stockpiles  dropped 600K vs -2.12M eyed
  • Crude production falls to 12.2 million bpd (lower boundaries of this year’s range)
  • Gold struggles as Fed leaves door open for more hikes


Crude prices softened after the EIA crude oil inventory report stockpiles fell less-than-expected as surging gasoline prices weighed on demand.  Gas is almost over 10 cents a gallon according to AAA and that rising trend might continue going to the end of summer.  Crude exports also rose above the 4 million barrel a day threshold, which shows overseas demand is growing as OPEC+ tightens the oil market. 


Gold prices remained heavy after the FOMC statement as Fed swaps continue to price in small chances of an additional rate hike.  The Fed will probably see no change with rates in September and when the market is confident that November will be a pause, then gold might break out higher.   Gold is now in wait-and-see mode for the rest of the big earnings releases and if the ECB and BOJ can surprise markets.  


Bitcoin caught a modest bid after the Fed decision triggered a modest risk-on rally.  The Fed is most likely done raising rates and that should provide some relief to the interest rate sensitive sectors in the cryptoverse.  

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya