Oil pares gain on refinery outages, Gold’s busy week ends where it started

• Kpler data shows Iran oil exports hit highest level since sanctions started
• China increase oil import quota 20% from a year ago
• Gold ETFs reduced for a 13th straight day

Oil

Oil is rallying as the short-term fundamental outlook appears to have turned a corner, with Europe’s diesel premium surging and as China delivers a massive crude import quota.  Europe’s widening of Gasoil cracks was triggered by refinery maintenance across Asia, while China’s imports improve and probably will become robust once stimulus flows through the economy.   

Who needs a nuclear deal anyway? Iran has seen a significant boost in exports, in fact so has Russia and Venezuela, the other OPEC+ countries that have been hit with sanctions. Iran’s oil exports have been surging, reaching the highest levels since sanction began in 2018. 

Refinery outages are killing this morning’s rally as that could lead to significant builds over the coming weeks.

Gold

Gold really didn’t do a whole lot this week despite all the central bank fireworks and as stocks had the best week since March. A hawkish Fed hold was countered by some stimulus from China, which also comes with expectations that more help for the Chinese economy is coming.  At the beginning of the week, if you said the Fed was going to pencil in two more rate hikes, most macro traders would have expected gold to make a run towards the $1900 level.  A gold plunge did not occur as the hawkish FOMC statement and staff projections was followed by a hesitant Fed Chair that refused to commit to a July hike.  The ECB on the other hand has signaled they are raising rates in July and that more might need to be done. 

Gold won’t be attracting safe-haven flows until this stock market breaks and that might not if the AI trade remains intact.  Adobe earnings kept the AI trade going, but despite all the buzz, it could be ready for a pause.  Gold might continue to consolidate here, but should rebound the moment risk appetite heads for summer vacation. 

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