A steady start

Stock markets are off to a cautious start in what is expected to be a massive week in financial markets and the final all-action one of the year.

That’s not to say the next two weeks will be without incident – we can’t be so naive after what 2022 has delivered so far – but participation will be much lower and the calendar much thinner.

And what a week we have in front of us. One that will set the scene for 2023, which in itself will no doubt have plenty of surprises in store, and hopefully leave everyone with a slightly better idea of how much worse things will get. Perhaps I hope for too much but we are getting closer to the point at which that will become clearer.

While the Fed will be the headline act this week, there’s an abundance of central bank meetings including the ECB, BoE, and SNB, among others. Not to mention some big-hitting economic releases like the US CPI on Tuesday which will lay the groundwork for that all-important rate decision and, more importantly, the forecasts.

UK GDP welcome economy probably still in recession

The UK economy grew more than expected in October but safe to say, we should probably leave the sparkling wine on ice. One month of better than expected growth, even at 0.5%, doesn’t change the fact that the economy is under immense pressure and probably in a recession that will last well into next year.

The rebound, while partially a reflection of stronger spending on cars and construction, was also boosted by the extra bank holiday a month earlier. The trend remains weak and November and December will be extremely tough for many households facing a severe cost-of-living crisis. And the cold snap we’re now experiencing is going to eat away at disposable income as those that can afford to are forced to crank up the heating.

Continuing to stabilize

Bitcoin is continuing to stabilize around $17,000, around the level it has fluctuated around throughout this month. Which way it breaks next may also depend on events over the next 48 hours with the CPI report and Fed decision.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.