Yen edges higher after mixed inflation data

The Japanese yen has been relatively quiet for over a week and the trend has continued on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.79, down 0.25% on the day.

Japan release mixed inflation numbers on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan Core CPI, a preferred inflation indicator of the central bank, surprised on the downside with a 1.5% gain in October. This was lower than the 1.7% gain in September and shy of the market estimate of 1.8%. The services producer price index, however, inched upwards to 2.9% in October, up from 2.8% in September and above the market estimate of 2.5%.

The Bank of Japan is keeping a close eye on the rise in services inflation, as it supports the central bank’s view that stronger wage growth is leading to higher service inflation, which is key to keeping inflation sustainable. Will the rise in services inflation translate into an interest rate hike at the Dec. 19 meeting? The BoJ isn’t about to tip its hand, but if Friday’s Tokyo Core CPI release accelerates, as is expected, there would be further pressure on the BoJ to raise rates at the December meeting.

The BoJ is keeping an anxious eye on the US, with President-elect Trump taking over in January. Trump hasn’t wasted any time and posted a threat on Monday to slap tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada. Although Japan wasn’t included in the post, Trump has previously said that he would impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imported goods, which could badly hurt the Japanese auto industry.

• USD/JPY has pushed below support at 154.15 and tested support at 153.58 earlier.
• 154.75 and 155.32 are the next resistance lines