PCE price index preview & EUR/USD technical analysis

• PCE release focus: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the July PCE price index report on Wednesday, August 26, which will serve as a critical signal for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
• Inflation expectations: Consensus estimates call for headline PCE inflation to moderate slightly to 3.6% YoY, while core PCE is projected to hold steady at 3.3% YoY.
• Broader economic data: The PCE release will be accompanied by key household financial metrics, including Personal Income, Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Personal Spending (Outlays), and the Personal Savings Rate.
• Technical outlook (EUR/USD): Following FOMC minutes, EUR/USD broke above its complex head-and-shoulders neckline and key pivot levels toward 1.1710, with immediate resistance ahead at 1.1737 (weekly R1) while oscillators indicate overbought conditions.

The upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report—scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday, August 26—serves as a pivotal indicator for investors evaluating the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, particularly because PCE (specifically Core PCE) is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy. Consensus estimates project July headline PCE inflation to tick down slightly to 3.6% year-over-year while core PCE is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3%, making this print highly scrutinized for signals on whether underlying price pressures are abating or remaining stubbornly elevated.

The upcoming PCE report carries heightened significance, coming on the heels of recent FOMC meeting minutes that revealed a 6–3 division among members and landing directly ahead of both the Jackson Hole Symposium and the September FOMC interest rate decision.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is a subcomponent of the broader personal income and outlays report, released simultaneously by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). When the PCE data drops, it is released alongside several key measures of household financial health:

• Personal income: Total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, investment returns, and government transfers (such as Social Security).
• Disposable personal income (DPI): Personal income remaining after current tax payments—a key metric for consumer spending power.
• Personal spending (Outlays): Real and nominal figures showing how much consumers spent on goods (durable and nondurable) and services.
• Personal savings rate: Personal savings expressed as a percentage of disposable income, showing how much buffer households are maintaining.

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• Following a downside breakout from a medium-term ascending channel in July 2025, EUR/USD entered a broadening wedge structure (highlighted by the blue trendlines). Price action subsequently printed a positive stochastic divergence in June 2026, followed by an exhaustion gap in July, establishing firm structural support above the monthly S1 pivot at 1.1406. A bullish rally lifted the pair toward the 1.1550 handle, where price consolidated under a confluence of resistance from August 1 through August 19th, 2026, then broke higher following the release of the dovish FOMC meeting minutes, as marked on the chart.

• The aforementioned confluence of resistance comprised the inverted complex head-and-shoulders neckline, the monthly pivot point (PP) at 1.1601, the first monthly support (S1) at 1.1589, and the 9-period exponential moving average (EMA9) and the 9-period simple moving average (SMA9). The resistance level has now turned into support; the range is marked by a blue circle.

• The previously discussed inverted complex head-and-shoulders bottoming structure reached completion on August 19. A decisive bullish breakout above the neckline catalyzed upward momentum, pushing price action through key resistance at the weekly PP (1.1650) and the monthly R2 (1.1671), and printing a session high near 1.1710.

• An immediate resistance lies above price action, R1 weekly at 1.1737, followed by R3 monthly R3 1.1795.

• Oscillator metrics reflect extended momentum, with the 14-period Stochastic (14, 1, 3) holding deep in overbought territory at 85.45 and the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) trending firmly higher at 73.19.

EMA: Exponential Moving Average

MA: Moving Average

RSI: Relative Strength Index

% K: Fast Stochastic,

%D Slow Stochastic

MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence

Pivot Point: PP – Support: S – Resistance: R