Oil lower, gold stumbles

Oil

Oil prices are lower as energy traders await a wrath of central bank decisions that will trigger mid-cycle slowdowns that will cripple the short-term crude demand outlook. Commodities are broadly weaker as this week is all about the aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat inflation.

OPEC+ may have a strong case to lower output after this week’s central bank decisions. ​ A global economic slowdown is here and unless the oil market sees some surprise disruptions or broader market rally, crude prices could remain heavy. 

Gold could get crushed by Fed

Gold’s ‘September Swoon’ could get uglier if the inflation-fighting Fed decides not to blink at the risk of sending the economy into a recession. Fed Chair Powell’s messaging will likely determine if gold gets crushed here. Gold will be in trouble if Powell is able to convince markets that not only will they remain aggressive with tightening, but that they will hold rates even as the economic downturn worsens. ​ ​

Gold volatility will remain elevated post-FOMC as prices will likely have a strong case for either a move towards $1600 or above the $1700 level.