Oil
Crude prices declined as energy traders quickly abandoned bullish bets that we will see a price spike once the Russian cap on crude oil would be put in place. It seems oil markets are only caring about a steady deterioration with the demand outlook. The latest EIA crude oil inventory report showed inventories dropped less than expected and exports tumbled. Exports fell 30%, which is the lowest level since October. Gasoline inventories are rising as demand struggles. This report shows the economy is clearly weakening and does not give energy bulls any reasons to buy into this weakness.
Gold
Everything is starting to go gold’s way; the dollar is softening, recession risks are rising, and geopolitical tensions are escalating. Non-interest-bearing gold will continue to thrive if Treasury yields continue to slide. This is a good environment for gold as safe-haven flows seem like they will be the theme of the new year. Gold will likely trade back and forth through the $1800 level leading up to next week’s FOMC decision.
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