Nvidia hit a $4 trillion market value on Wednesday, becoming the first public company to do so. Its stock rose 2.4% to $164, driven by strong demand for AI technology.
Nvidia first passed the $2 trillion mark in February 2024, and first passed the $3 trillion mark in June, now at $4 trillion in Early July. Nvidia is now up about 74% from its April lows, when global markets were jolted from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff volley.
One concern for market participants continues to be the outsize weighting of Nvidia and other ‘mag 7’ stocks on the S&P 500. Nvidia now holds a 7.3% weight, fellow tech heavyweights like Apple and Microsoft hold 7% and 6% respectively.
The impact of Nvidia's rise today coupled with optimism around potential trade deals has helped the Nasdaq 100 to fresh all-time highs.
Source: LSEG Data, Google Gemini Infographic
Technical Outlook - Nasdaq 100
From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 has continued to edge higher since breaking above the 22000 handle in the last week of June.
Trade deal optimism has been driving the recent move, while decent US data has also helped matters.
Earnings season kicks off this month and could come into play in the weeks ahead, for now though any positive trade deal announcements could see the Nasdaq continue its rise.
There is a bit of divergence in play on the H4 chart at the moment with the rsi printing a lower high while price has printed a higher high. Could we see a short-term pullback before the next leg higher?
Nasdaq 100 H4 Chart, July 9, 2025
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Technical Analysis - Dow Jones Index (DJIA)
From a technical standpoint, the Dow is taking a breath just shy of its all-time highs.
However, a golden cross pattern has occurred hinting at the bullish momentum still in play, which together with trade deal optimism does bode well for further upside.
A deeper pullback toward the 50 and 200-day MA first cannot be ruled out. The confluence area around 43000 could be perfect for potential longs and provide a better risk to reward as well.
Dow Jones Index Daily Chart, July 9, 2025
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
FOMC Minutes Up Next
Traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, set to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET, for clues on when rate cuts might resume.
Given the recent rhetoric from the Trump administration calling for lower rates it will be interesting to gauge where the Fed policymakers stood at the June meeting.
A rate cut in July is unlikely, but there’s a 66% chance of a cut in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
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