Euro rally fizzles, ECB expected to hold rates

The euro has edged lower on Wednesday after a three-day rally which saw the currency climb 1.4% against the US dollar. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1724, down 0.25% on the day.

The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the money markets are widely expecting that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0%.

The ECB has trimmed rates by a quarter-point for seven consecutive meetings. At the June meeting, ECB President Lagarde signaled that the central bank was nearing the end of its easing cycle, which began in June 2024 when the deposit rate stood at 4.05%.

Inflation in the eurozone is largely contained. In June, headline CPI remained steady at 2.0%, the ECB's target, and core CPI was unchanged at 2.3%. These inflation levels would allow the ECB to continue lowering rates but ECB policymakers face the big unknown of President Trump's tariff policy, with no trade agreement yet between the US and the European Union. Trump has threatened the EU with 30% tariffs if no deal is reached by August 1.

The EU has vowed to respond forcefully, saying it will impose a 30% tariff on a range of US goods if Trump makes good on his threat. That could set into motion retaliatory tariffs from the US and trigger an ugly trade war between two of the largest economies in the world. The US and Japan announced today that they had reached a trade deal and there is hope that the EU will follow suit. This would provide much needed clarity for the ECB and make it easier to forecast growth and inflation.

• EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1731. Below, there is support at 1.1702
• There is resistance at 1.1784 and 1.1813