Canadian dollar shrugs as retail sales jump

The Canadian dollar has started the week with small gains. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3958 at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Canada or the US today, which means we can expect a quiet day for the Canadian dollar.

The week ended on a high note as Canada’s retail sales are expected to have jumped 0.7% y/y in October. This follows an upwardly revised gain of 0.4% in September. In the third quarter, retail sales were up 0.9%.

This marks a strong turnaround after a sharp contraction in the first half of the year and indicates that the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest rate cuts are supporting consumer spending. The BoC has chopped rates by 1.25% since June, lowering the cash rates to 3.75%, its lowest level in two years.

The BoC meets next on Dec. 11 and is expected to lower rates, with a 25 basis point cut the more likely scenario. October inflation surprised on the upside, rising from 1.6% to 2%, and today’s strong retail sales data supports a smaller size cut. As well, the government is removing a sales tax on some items from December 2024 until February 2025. This could dampen spending in November as consumers might delay purchases until December to take advantage of the sales tax holiday.

In the US, the PMI reports pointed to continued weakness in manufacturing, while the services sector continues to carry the economy. The Manufacturing PMI contracted for a fifth straight month, rising from 48.5 to 48.8. The Services PMI rose to 57.0, up from 55.0, which points to strong growth.

• USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3952. Below, there is support at 1.3923
• 1.3986 and 1.4015 are the next resistance lines