Canadian dollar rallies, jobs report looms

The Canadian dollar has shined this week, posting gains over the past four days and rising 1%. Will the impressive rally continue? In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3732, unchanged on the day.

Canadian job growth expected to rebound

Canada wraps up the week with the July employment report. The June report was soft, with job growth coming in at -1.4 thousand, a rare decline. The markets are expecting strong turnaround today, with an estimate of 26.9 thousand. The flip side is that the unemployment rate is expected to nudge up to 6.5%, compared to 6.4% in June. If the employment report is a mix as expected, it will be interesting to see how investors respond.

The Bank of Canada will be watching closely as it looks to the next meeting on September 4. The BoC has led the recent global trend of lowering rates, having trimmed rates by a quarter-point at each of the past two meetings. If the labour market shows further signs of cooling, it will support the case to lower rates again, perhaps as early as September. The Federal Reserve is virtually guaranteed to cut rates when its meets on September 18 and this will make it easier for the BoC to cut without putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

In the US, weaker economic data and the meltdown in the global stock markets has raised expectations of a half-point cut from the Fed in September. The probability of that scenario, only 3% a month ago, has soared to 54.5%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. The market slide led to calls for an emergency rate cut, but the US stock market has rebounded this week. Still, there is an uneasy calm as fears persist that the US economy is showing signs of deteriorating quickly and the sell-off could reignite if the US posts weak data.

USD/CAD Technical

• 1.3746 is a weak resistance line, followed by 1.3809.
• There is support at 1.3704 and 1.3679