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Surging Canadian dollar hits 8-week high
Canadian dollar climbs despite high US inflation The Canadian dollar continues to flex its muscles, as USD/CAD has dropped to an 8-week low. The pair is pressing very close to the 1.25 line, which has psychological significance. With everybody talking about inflation, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, today's US CPI report for December could well have been the highlight of the week.
by Kenneth Fisher
UK100 - From strength to strength
Further to run? The UK100 has been going from strength to strength in recent weeks, relatively undeterred by the wobble in broader stock markets over the last week or so as it eyes January 2020 highs above. It's already back in pre-pandemic territory and the momentum indicators on both the daily and 4-hour charts continue to look healthy. That may suggest resistance around 7,560 is looking a little vulnerable, with the next big test above coming around 7,700. Ultimately, the ability to achi
by Craig Erlam
Oil rally continues, gold choppy
Fundamentals remain bullish for crude Oil prices are trading back around their highest levels since late October after another surge on Tuesday. The rally continues as OPEC continues to miss output targets and Libya reportedly struggles to ramp up production again.
by Craig Erlam
Risk back on?
Stock markets remain in positive territory on Wednesday after a reassuring appearance from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and some inflation data. Jerome Powell put in a decent performance on Tuesday but sentiment is clearly very fragile and it may not take much to tip investors over the edge again. Three rate hikes are now heavily priced into the markets this year, with balance sheet reduction perhaps starting in the third quarter. While investors could get on board with that, the situat
by Craig Erlam
Aussie snoozes as mini-rally fizzles
The Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday as it trades just above the 0.72 level. On Tuesday, the Aussie posted strong gains of 0.51%, its best daily performance in a week.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil and gold rally after Powell remarks
Oil prices leap higher after Powell testimony Oil prices rocketed higher overnight as the Powell testimony removed the threat of early rate hikes, for now, allowing the fundamentals of constrained OPEC+ production, and an omi-gone variant recovery, to reassert themselves with a vengeance. Brent crude rocketed 3.25% higher to USD 83.60 a barrel, while WTI leapt 3.65% higher to USD 81.25 a barrel.
by Jeffrey Halley
Risk sentiment recovery pushes dollar lower
Powell testimony weighs on US dollar The Powell-inspired risk sentiment rally overnight saw US yields edge lower and weighed heavily on the US dollar, which staged a broad retreat. The dollar index fell 0.36% to 95.60, just above support at 95.50.
by Jeffrey Halley
Asian equities jump on Wall Street rally
Powell remarks boost Wall Street, Asia follows The soothing words of Jerome Powell overnight unleashed anxiously waiting, but side-lined buyers, resulting in a strong overnight recovery by Wall Street. Mr Powell noted that the Fed could hike rates to rein in inflation, planned to start the balance sheet run-off sooner rather than later, but also said inflationary pressures would peak mid-year. What he didn’t say was also important.
by Jeffrey Halley
Jerome and the three bears
Powell testimony soothes markets Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, testifying at his confirmation hearing on the Hill, soothed markets overnight in a performance worthy of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Mr Powell noted that the Fed could hike rates to rein in inflation, intended to start the balance sheet run-off sooner rather than later, but also said inflationary pressures would peak mid-year.
by Jeffrey Halley
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 281)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the day's market news with Jonny Hart. This morning they discussed the market reaction to Jerome Powell's testimony and today's US CPI data.
by Craig Erlam
US Close: Markets embrace lengthy Balance Sheet runoff debate, Fed readies March hike
US stocks went on a rollercoaster ride after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony signaled that the Fed “in all likelihood” will be normalizing policy, while allowing the balance-sheet runoff later this year. The Fed sees inflation lasting till mid-2022 and that is probably when they will let the balance sheet decline. Wall Street now has a better understanding on how the Fed will normalize policy and with the balance runoff likely taking up to four meetings.
by Edward Moya
Commodities and Cryptos: Oil rallies Gold Shines, Bitcoin higher
Oil Crude prices rallied alongside risky assets after Fed Chair Powell signaled a lengthy debate over the balance sheet runoff.  A long road to normal means the economy will still see a lot of support over the first half of the year and that is good news for crude prices. Oil prices seem poised to trade between $80 and $100 a barrel as the global demand outlook still looks upbeat as most major economies are getting closer to the other side of the omicron fence.  NY Gov Hochul said, COVID rates
by Edward Moya
NAS100 - Correction complete?
Or further to go? It's been a shaky start to the new year, with interest rate anxieties dragging on sentiment and hitting the NAS100 particularly hard. The index fell more than 8% over the last week, breaking through key support in the process which could have led to a much deeper correction. Instead, the index bounced strongly in the final hours of trading on Monday and failed to close below the rising channel. While a deeper correction could still be on the cards, the false breakout - as
by Craig Erlam
Yen dips, inflation expectations rise
After several days of gains, the Japanese yen has reversed directions and is in negative territory. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 115.48, up 0.23% on the day. Japanese consumers expect higher inflation The Japanese government is committed to an ultra-easy monetary policy, but it will need stronger consumer spending if it hopes to kickstart the economy.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil rebounds, gold holds above 1800
Oil eyes Autumn highs Oil prices are rebounding higher again on Tuesday, up more than 1%, and with sights seemingly set on the late autumn highs. We saw some heat come out of the market over the last couple of days but pullbacks were always likely to be limited given the broader dynamics. Of course, omicron offers some demand uncertainty over the coming months but the market is tight as OPEC+ slowly turns the taps back on.
by Craig Erlam
The start of the fightback?
Stock markets are enjoying some reprieve after a rocky start to the week and investors will be hoping earnings season provides more cause for optimism in the weeks ahead. The January blues are alive and well and with markets now eyeing up the possibility of four rate hikes this year, we may be approaching peak fear just in time for earnings season. We've quickly pivoted from the transitory inflation narrative to aggressive tightening including a combination of accelerated tapering, multiple rat
by Craig Erlam
Aussie yawns after retail sales jump
The Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week and is unchanged in Tuesday trade. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7170. Australia's retail sales soar Australian consumers opened their purse strings in November, as retail sales jumped 7.3%, well above the consensus of 3.6%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro calm, warning from Bundesbank
It continues to be quiet week for the euro, which is trading around 1.1340 in the European session. The currency markets are nervous and continue to be marked by range trading.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil consolidates, gold rallies
Oil consolidates Oil prices eased slightly overnight in corrective price action consistent with a consolidation of oil’s recent impressive price gains. Brent crude fell by 1.0% to USD 81.00, rising to USD 81.30 a barrel in Asia.
by Jeffrey Halley
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