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Stalled rebound
The risk rebound in the markets has stalled and equity markets are down around 1% on Thursday following quite a good run over the last month. The day we've all been waiting for The Autumn Statement has been a long time coming after the disastrous mini-budget almost two months ago. The UK's fiscal credibility was in the gutter, the pound was crushed and borrowing costs soared.
by Craig Erlam
Oil prices fall, gold stalls
Oil slips amid easing geopolitical risk and China woes Oil prices are slipping as we move through the week, with easing geopolitical risk and Chinese demand weighing. Prices spiked earlier in the week after missiles landed in Poland, risking a dramatic escalation in the war in Ukraine.
by Craig Erlam
Yen dips ahead of key inflation data
The Japanese yen continues to flirt with the 140 level. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.25, up 0.51%. Japan releases the October National CPI later today, which is expected to rise to 3.5%, following the September reading of 3.0%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Aussie slides despite strong job data
The Australian dollar is considerably lower on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6671, down 1.02%. Employment data shines Australia's tight labor market got even tighter in October.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil slides, gold softens
Oil Yesterday’s bullish triggers for oil prices were quickly undone today. ​ Oil prices declined after flows from the Druzhba pipeline resumed and preliminary analysis of the missile that killed two in Poland was likely an errant missile fired by Ukraine’s defense system. ​ It looks like we aren’t seeing an immediate escalation from the Russians and that has tentatively removed some of the short-term supply risks. Oil struggled for direction after a mixed EIA crude oil inventory report as stockp
by Edward Moya
Australian dollar dips as wages jump
The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732, down 0.34%. Australia's wage growth climbs Australia's labour market has been tight for months, with unemployment at a 50-year low of 3.5% and not enough people to fill job vacancies. This has put pressure on wages, and the dam finally burst today as wage growth posted its largest quarterly gain since 2012.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil steadies, gold eyes resistance
Oil steadies after strikes in Poland Oil prices are softer on Wednesday after a brief bout of volatility late Tuesday following reports of missile strikes in Poland. That unsurprisingly jolted financial markets, sending oil prices higher initially, but that quickly settled and crude prices are now back where they were before. It goes without saying that any significant escalation in the war in Ukraine will likely add a substantial risk premium to oil prices, with Russia being a major producer an
by Craig Erlam
US consumer remains strong
Equity markets in Europe are back in the red on Wednesday, while the US looks largely unchanged around the open on Wall Street. Reports of missile strikes in Poland on Tuesday naturally caused a shudder in the markets. The prospect of a sudden and unexpected escalation in the war in Ukraine, particularly involving a NATO state, doesn't bear thinking about but we were almost forced to, and under the circumstance, the reaction was fairly modest. It could have been much worse but investors appear t
by Craig Erlam
Canadian dollar steady ahead of inflation
The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Wednesday, trading at 1.3254, down 0.18%. Canadian dollar eyes inflation The Canadian dollar has performed well in the month of November, with gains of 2.7%. The unexpectedly soft inflation report out of the US ignited risk appetite, sending equities soaring and the US dollar sharply lower.
by Kenneth Fisher
Stocks volatile after PPI cools and Russian missiles crossed into Poland, BlockFi the next crypto domino to fall
US stocks initially rose after an economic report showed inflation is cooling and after Walmart’s earnings provided optimism this was still going to be a decent holiday season. ​ It was a busy morning with economic data and earnings, but the overall take is that a soft landing still seems possible. Stocks tumbled after reports that Russian missiles crossed over into Poland. ​ This is a significant escalation as Poland is a NATO state.
by Edward Moya
Oil rises on geopolitical angst, gold steady but faces strong resistance at $1800
Oil Crude prices remain volatile as energy traders digest another round of economic data that supports the idea that the Fed could still deliver a soft landing and as stockpiles remain near 18-year lows. ​ Earlier crude was lower as Beijing struggles with surging Covid cases. ​ Also what’s keeping the oil market on edge is the proposed price cap on Russian crude. ​ Some analysts expect only a modest drop in Russian production but we won’t find that out until next month. Oil surged after reports
by Edward Moya
Japanese yen rises despite GDP decline
The Japanese yen hit its highest level since August 29th, as the currency powers higher. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 139.17, down 0.53%. The US dollar can't find its footing, and even a soft GDP reading out of Japan hasn't put a dent in the current yen rally.
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian dollar powers higher
The Australian dollar continues to gain ground and hit a two-month high earlier today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6756, up 0.85%. RBA to limit forward guidance The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes noted that the use of forward guidance had been useful during the Covid pandemic, but it would no longer remain a tool unless "appropriate".
by Kenneth Fisher
BoE facing tough decisions
Equity markets are looking slightly positive in early trade on Tuesday, adding to modest gains at the start of the week. While the rally is perhaps slowing a little after the strong gains of recent weeks, there doesn't appear to be much appetite at this stage to bail on it. Perhaps the experience of the last year and the huge declines in equity markets have left investors seeing substantial value and they've become excited at even the prospect of a bull run.
by Craig Erlam
Oil flat, gold hits key resistance
Oil treading water Oil prices are basically flat on Tuesday, sitting a little below the middle of their recent trading ranges as traders continue to weigh up the global economic outlook, OPEC+ production risks, and China's Covid approach. Prices remain choppy and that's likely to remain the case given the ongoing uncertainty around these key areas. Everyone became much more optimistic around the US after last week's inflation report but that appears to have quickly faded.
by Craig Erlam
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 398)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the latest surge in Covid cases in China, the modest relaxation of its zero-Covid policy, the OPEC+ report and the week ahead.
by Craig Erlam
Yields rise on Fed speak, stocks edge lower, what-the-FTX is happening with cryptos?
Bond yields marched higher after Fed’s Waller said the Fed has ‘a ways to go’ before pausing their rate hiking cycle. ​ US stocks are declining after the latest Fed speak pushes back on the idea that the Fed is almost done hiking and after President Biden and Xi’s first in-person meeting delivered the standard rhetoric about avoiding a cold war.
by Edward Moya
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