New Zealand dollar pares gains as RBNZ holds rates

• New Zealand’s central bank takes a pause after 12 consecutive hikes
• New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled
• US inflation expected to decline to 3.1%

The New Zealand dollar showed some gains after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused rates, but has given up most of those gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6206, up 0.14%.

RBNZ takes a breather

There was no dramatic surprise from the RBNZ, which kept interest rates on hold at Wednesday’s meeting, as expected. The central bank has been aggressive, raising rates 12 straight times since August 2021 until Wednesday’s meeting. This leaves the cash rate at 5.50%.

The RBNZ had signalled that it would take a break, with Deputy Governor Hawkesby stating last month that there would be a “high bar” for the RBNZ to continue raising rates. Today’s rate statement said that interest rates were constraining inflation “as anticipated and required”, adding that “the Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range.” The RBNZ did not issue any updated forecasts or a press conference with Governor Orr, which might have resulted in some volatility from the New Zealand dollar.

The central bank has tightened rates by some 525 basis points, which has dampened the economy and chilled consumer spending. Is this current rate-tightening cycle done? The central bank would like to think so, but that will depend to a large extent on whether inflation continues to move lower toward the Bank’s inflation target of 1-3%.

The pause will provide policymakers with some time to monitor the direction of the economy and particularly inflation. If inflation proves to be more persistent than expected, there’s every reason to expect the aggressive RBNZ to deliver another rate hike later in the year.

New Zealand releases Manufacturing PMI for June on Wednesday after the rate decision. The manufacturing sector has contracted for three straight months, with readings below the 50.0 line, which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is expected to rise from 48.9 to 49.8, which would point to almost no change in manufacturing activity.

The US will release the June inflation report later in the day. Headline inflation is expected to fall from 4.0% to 3.1%, and the core rate is also expected to drop, from 5.3% t0 5.0%. If core CPI does surprise and accelerates, that could raise market expectations for a September rate hike. A rate increase is all but a given at the July 27th meeting, with the probability of a rate hike at 92%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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NZD/USD Technical

• 0.6184 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.6148
• 0.6260 and 0.6383 are the next resistance lines

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