The FOMC Minutes for the September meeting just got released.
Overall, the minutes largely reinforced what markets had priced in: the Fed sees room to ease, but is willing to wait for clearer signs. (They might have trouble to do so with the incumbent Government shutdown preventing data releases)
There has been some mentions of the current financial conditions being "not particularly restrictive" and some more upside risks to Employment – As the Fed looks to focus more on Employment looking forward, "upside risks" can be considered dovish.
Nonetheless, many members did emphasize "upside risks to their outlook for inflation" which puts up Neutral Rate estimates on the long-run.
You can access the Minutes remark right here.
The most important mentions were:
- "borrowing costs generally declined but remained elevated relative to their average post–Global Financial Crisis (GFC) levels" on Interest Rates
- “Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting … and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting.” on future FOMC decisions
- "the projection of real GDP growth was revised up somewhat, on balance, for this year through 2028, primarily reflecting stronger-than-expected data for both consumer spending and business investment" on the Economy.
There has also been some mentions of geopolitics, with the FED looking progressively into how it will affect the outlook.
To resume, the Fed is not afraid of the Economy falling for now, some heavier concerns for Employment and high concerns for inflation.
US Dollar reactions
Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView
The Dollar initially formed a doji but is starting to sell off – Watch for some dovish pricing but except for anything crazy, markets shouldn't go too far. The Minutes rarely are such market movers.
You can also access our most recent in-depth US Dollar analysis here.
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