The US CPI just released with the data coming right around expectations.
US CPI, August 12, 2025 – Source: MarketPulse
Except for the rounded core year-over year, data did not surprise.
Core is at 3.1% y/y vs 3.0% but the m/m is as expected at +0.3% (unrounded 0.322%)
The Headline is as expected with 0.2% m/m and a slight upgrade to the y/y data 2.7% y/y vs 2.8% consensus
Changes per categories
Inflation change per categories, Source: InvestingLive
Market Reactions
US Dollar getting sold off
Dollar Index 15m Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
The USD is giving back what it gained yesterday, the DXY is close to the 98.00 handle and it will be interesting to see what it does from here
S&P 500 and equities shine
S&P 500 CFD 15m Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Equity Futures and CFDs are loving the news before the market opens, this data is solid enough to maintain the rate cuts pricing.
Gold rallies a bit but mixed
Gold 15m Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Same for Bitcoin, rallying but mixed
Bitcoin 15m Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
US Bonds rallied but currently mean-reverting
US 10Y Bond 15m Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Ethereum rallies over $4,400, profit taking ongoing
ETH 15m Chart, August 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
After touching highs of $4,426, ETH is reverting slightly below the key milestone.
Kalshi Market pricing and FED Watchtool (Market Implied)
X post from Walter Bloomberg, August 12, Source: X
Kalshi probabilities (betting application) are standing at 80% of a 25 bps cut, 14% say unchanged and 6% say cut by more than 25 bps
Market implied (FED Watchtool)
FED Watchtool – Rate cut pricing on Interest rate futures, Aug 12, Source: CME
The day is far from over, look at how rate cuts move the market reactions.
With Bonds, Stocks and Gold rallying, the Market is in Rate cut euphoria.
It will be key to spot where the cuts get priced in as September looks like a done deal.
Safe Trades!
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