Trump pressures Iran as Islamabad talks aim to secure lasting Middle East truce

• President Trump increased pressure on Iran ahead of direct talks in Islamabad, warning that Tehran has little leverage beyond disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and threatening further US military action if negotiations fail.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains the main obstacle to a lasting deal, as its continued closure is disrupting global oil and gas supplies, pushing crude prices higher, and keeping financial markets on edge.
• Despite a fragile ceasefire, ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s demands for a Lebanon ceasefire, release of blocked assets, and war reparations are complicating efforts to reach a broader peace agreement.

President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Iran on Friday as the United States and Iran prepared for direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, aimed at turning a fragile two-week ceasefire into a more durable peace agreement. In a social media post, Trump argued that Tehran’s main source of leverage was its “short term extortion of the world by using International Waterways,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial route for global oil and natural gas shipments that remains largely closed. He added that the Iranians “have no cards,” underscoring his administration’s hard line ahead of the negotiations.

Trump reinforced that message in comments to the New York Post, saying US warships were being reloaded with “the best ammunition” and warning that fresh attacks could follow if diplomacy fails. Speaking about the prospects for a breakthrough, he said the outcome would become clear “in about 24 hours.”

Strait of Hormuz remains a central pressure point

Although the ceasefire has broadly held across the Middle East, the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most serious obstacles to lasting stability. Before the war, the strait carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, making its disruption a major threat to global energy supplies.

So far, there has been little sign of a meaningful increase in shipping traffic since the truce began. Shipowners appear reluctant to resume normal operations until the status of the waterway becomes clearer. A Russian-flagged supertanker was reported passing through the strait late Thursday, but such movement has been rare. The blockade has kept pressure on oil markets, with US crude rising to around $99 a barrel, while financial markets remained volatile as investors weighed the risk of renewed military escalation.

Trump had already criticized Iran on Thursday for failing to allow oil shipments to move freely through the strait and warned Tehran against imposing fees on tankers. Even so, he has continued to express cautious optimism about a possible agreement, describing Iran’s leaders in an NBC News interview as more reasonable in private than their public statements suggest.

Iran signals conditions for diplomacy

Iran, however, has made clear that it is entering the talks with its own demands. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said that a ceasefire in Lebanon must be in place before negotiations can begin. He also called for the release of Iran’s blocked assets, though he did not provide further details.

An Iranian delegation was expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday night, according to officials in Pakistan’s capital. Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were set to lead the delegation. On the US side, Vice President JD Vance, who is heading the American team, said before departing for Pakistan that Trump had issued “clear guidelines” for the talks. Vance also warned Tehran not to underestimate Washington or attempt to manipulate the process.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, added another layer of uncertainty by stating on Telegram that Iran would bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz “to a new stage.” It remained unclear whether that meant Iran would renew earlier demands to retain greater control over the waterway, a position the United States has previously rejected. Khamenei also repeated Iran’s call for war reparations, a demand that is widely expected to be unacceptable to US negotiators.

Fighting in Lebanon threatens to complicate peace efforts

At the same time, continued violence in Lebanon threatens to undermine the diplomatic opening between Washington and Tehran. Israel continued striking towns in southern Lebanon, though on a smaller scale than the major operation earlier in the week that reportedly killed more than 200 people. Hezbollah responded with drones and rocket attacks toward Israel, where medics said several people were injured in central and southern areas.

Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to keep operations in Lebanon “low-key” after the two leaders spoke by phone on Wednesday. Still, Netanyahu has maintained that the ongoing fighting in Lebanon is separate from the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement. He also said Israel would open direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah and ending the conflict, with the United States expected to host a meeting next week, according to a State Department official.

Despite these diplomatic gestures, Hezbollah has shown no sign of retreat. Secretary-General Naim Qasem declared that the group’s “resistance will continue until its last breath,” signaling that the Lebanese front could remain active even if US-Iran talks make progress.

Human and economic costs continue to mount

The broader war in the Middle East has inflicted heavy human and economic losses over the past six weeks. Thousands have been killed, and critical energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf has been damaged. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further strained global fuel supplies and deepened uncertainty in energy markets.

According to figures cited in the report, more than 5,500 people have died across the region. More than 3,600 deaths have been estimated in Iran, while Lebanon has reported over 1,700 fatalities. Israel says it has killed more than 1,400 Hezbollah militants, including 200 in a single day on Wednesday. Israel itself has reported around three dozen deaths, with a similar number recorded across Gulf Arab states. Iraq has also suffered dozens of casualties, and US Central Command says 13 American troops have been killed.

Although the United States and Iran appear to have paused most direct strikes, the situation remains highly unstable. Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry said Iran and its proxies carried out fresh attacks overnight on Thursday, though no further reports emerged on Friday.

A Fragile opening for peace

The talks in Islamabad now represent a critical test of whether the ceasefire can evolve into something more permanent. The United States is entering the negotiations with military pressure and a demand for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, is seeking political concessions, financial relief, and broader regional guarantees, particularly in Lebanon.

For now, the truce is holding, but only just. With the Strait of Hormuz still largely shut, oil markets under strain, and fighting continuing in Lebanon, the negotiations face immediate and serious obstacles. The coming days will show whether diplomacy can overcome these pressures or whether the region will slide back toward wider conflict.