Stocks: All News & Analysis

Stocks are wavering as Fed rate hike bets grow, Empire Strikes Back, EUR/USD tumbles below 1.10

Treasury yields higher across curve, with the 2-year rising 8.5 bps to 4.184% Empire surges and supports case for more Fed rate hikes EUR/USD tumbles below 1.10 Stocks are wavering as the risks of more tightening grow after New York factory activity recovers and as the too good to be true start to earnings season continues. Treasury yields are surging as Wall Street is quickly realizing banking turmoil risks are easing as emergency banks loans continue to decline. Small and large loan growth i

17-04-2023 15:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - All eyes on China's GDP, UK CPI, Flash PMIs, and Earnings

The first few banks are delivering a strong start to earnings season, reigniting soft landing calls, while large parts of Wall Street remain confident that the economy is recession bound as expectations remain that banking turmoil will persist. Fed rate cut bets for later in the year have steadily increased and that has kept the dollar under pressure.

14-04-2023 15:58 GMT by Edward Moya

Bank Earnings Impress, Inflation Expectations and Hawkish Fed Speak rattles stocks

Fed rate hike odds emerge for June meeting +16.7% UMich keeps Fed focused on inflation fight Early bank earnings impress Wall Street got scared after strong results from JPMorgan, surging inflation expectations, and some hawkish Fed speak, supported the idea that the Fed could raise rates not just in May but also in June. There was too much news to digest this morning, but the key takeaway is that the Fed has room to do more harm.

14-04-2023 14:59 GMT by Edward Moya

Bad news is good news for stocks, Mixed Earnings from Delta and Fastenal

Stocks poised for best day in almost 2 months Euro hits highest levels in a year against dollar Early earnings paint mixed outlook US stocks are rallying as the economic data continues to soften and as corporate updates support the idea that the economy is gradually weakening. Bad news is once again good news for stocks. The US dollar softened after soft PPI data and rising jobless claims bolstered Fed rate cut bets. US Data Today’s inflation readings showed a little bit more softness as s

13-04-2023 14:35 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks waver as inflation concerns remain and Fed Minutes project a 'mild recession' later this year

Inflation is cooling but still nowhere near target Fed Minutes show policymakers are eyeing a mild recession this year Dollar softer as rate cut bets boosted post CPI and Minutes US stocks initially rallied after the March inflation report showed consumer prices are decelerating, prompting bets that the Fed might be done tightening. Wall Street wants the Fed to be done with this rate hiking campaign but with supercore inflation nowhere near target, more work needs to be done. The initial stoc

12-04-2023 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Fed dovishness emerges ahead of pivotal CPI report, Oil and gold rally, Ethereum's Shapella Upgrade is here

Stocks get a boost from a double dose of dovishness from Williams and Goolsbee Commodities rally as dollar softens Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade is here US stocks are mixed heading into a pivotal inflation report that should support one more rate hike by the Fed. Today’s headlines didn’t tell Wall Street anything it didn’t already know: IMF trimmed their growth outlook, Fed’s Williams supported one more hike, and CarMax earnings showed consumers are leaning towards older vehicles. CarMax is rally

11-04-2023 15:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Wall Street nervous over upcoming week full of risks, BOJ Gov Ueda sinks yen

Stocks lower as markets price in 71.4% chance of a quarter-point hike at May 3rd FOMC meeting Commercial bank lending drops by $105 billion in two weeks ended March 29th Yen tumbles as BOJ Gov Ueda's inaugural address sticks current ultra-dovish policies US stocks are weakening as investors are anticipating the next inflation report will seal the deal for another quarter-point rate hike by the Fed. This is the week that could tell us that the US consumer is no longer showing resilience and

10-04-2023 11:41 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Can CPI, Retail Sales, and Bank Earnings derail Fed rate hike odds?

The US labor market is softening, but still remains tight and that should keep the door open for policymakers to raise rates again at the May 3rd policy meeting. The focus now shifts to whether disinflation trends can get back on track. The March inflation report is expected to show a slower monthly pace of 0.2%, down from 0.4%, while headline inflation reading is expected at 5.2% year on year, down from February’s 6.0%.

07-04-2023 11:33 GMT by Edward Moya

In-line NFP Report Bolsters Fed Rate Hike Odds, Dollar has its day, Bitcoin unfazed

European and US stocks markets are closed for Good Friday (Europe will stay closed on Monday) US Jobs Report raised odds of a Fed rate hike at the May meeting Dollar rallied, Bitcoin little changed In March, Charles Schwab acquired $53 billion in net new client assets After a week full of softening labor market readings, today’s nonfarm payroll report showed hiring is not cooling as quickly as some where thinking. The US jobs report was in-line with expectations, but it feels like a beat becau

07-04-2023 10:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Wall Street ready for a long weekend, Jobless Claims confirms labor market weakness is here, Canada Jobs Impress

Wall Street looks like it is ready for both a long weekend and a nonfarm payroll report that will likely show labor market weakness is happening. Stocks wavered most of the session as investors refrained from massive positioning before this shortened trading week wraps up. Some traders however don’t want exposure in case we get an upside surprise with the jobs report, just like Canada did today. Stocks settled higher as job softness and Fed Bullard's comments suggest monetary policy is almost

06-04-2023 13:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks fall as Wall Street goes Defensive

ADP mattered this week Wages advance at slowest pace in over a year Services Sector Cools Wall Street is realizing that you need a strong economy to keep stocks heading higher. Treasury yields headed lower after both the ADP private payrolls report and ISM Services Index both suggested the economy is weakening.

05-04-2023 16:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks get Jolted, Labor market is starting to loosen

10-year Treasury Yield tumbles from 10 bps to 3.34% after JOLTS data Stocks 4-day winning streak snapped Dollar looking vulnerable as Fed's tightening work almost done US Stocks Stocks got jolted after labor market weakness suggested both disinflation trends will remain but also the economy is quickly weakening. Job vacancies were dropping pre-banking crisis, so it is seems logical this will become more noticeable in the coming months. The bears are feeling confident that the recent rally ca

04-04-2023 15:33 GMT by Edward Moya

Banking Sector Drama Continues, Stocks pare losses as rate cuts fully priced in

Investors try to shrug off banking drama Wall Street was initially dragged down as banking worries persisted after Deutsche Bank’s costs against default skyrocketed. Deutsche Bank’s 5-year CDS surged from around 150 bps early on Thursday to a four-year high around 210 bps before settling closer to 193 bps. Other European banks, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas declined on banking turmoil fears.

24-03-2023 15:32 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close - Fed’s dovish hike trumped by Yellen not considering broad increase in deposit insurance, Oil rallies, Gold gets groove back, Bitcoin softens

Wall Street’s initial take on the Fed was that they delivered a dovish hike and that banking turmoil will finish the job of bringing inflation back to target. Fed Chair Powell started the press conference by noting that the banking system is sound, but Treasury Secretary Yellen put a wrench in that idea. Yellen noted that regulators are not considering a broad increase in deposit insurance. Yellen said she is not considering a broad increase in deposit insurance despite all the discussion aro

22-03-2023 17:07 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close: Fed expected to hike one more time, Yellen calms markets, Oil rebounds, Gold hit by profit-taking, Bitcoin awaits Fed

US stocks are higher as officials signal they will do whatever it takes to protect the banking system. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments at the American Bankers Association conference sparked today’s risk-on mood.

21-03-2023 15:52 GMT by Edward Moya

US Open: Stocks waver after UBS takeover deal/coordinated CB action/banking worries, Yen thrives on risk aversion flows, Bullish oil bets abandoned, Gold $2k, Bitcoin closer to $40k than November low

Looks like it will be another long week on Wall Street. It was a busy weekend after a Credit Suisse bailout and a coordinated effort by the Fed and other central banks to boost dollar liquidity. Despite a couple major weekend attempts to contain the risks hitting the banking system, US stocks are wavering as risk aversion won’t be going away until markets are confident that the Fed is done with their rate hiking campaign. The banking system still doesn’t have any confidence as Wall Street tri

20-03-2023 09:47 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - More turmoil to come?

A week ago, a lot of economists were thinking the Fed was going to pick up the pace of rate hikes as disinflation trends were struggling given a robust core services inflation reading and tight labor market conditions. A banking crisis however is changing how policymakers are assessing the impact of the first eight rate hikes.

17-03-2023 18:24 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 445)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after this week's banking turmoil, the University of Michigan sentiment report, Fed expectations for next week, recap the ECB decision, cryptos, and the week ahead.

17-03-2023 14:02 GMT by Edward Moya

US Open: Stocks still jittery on banking woes, Inflation expectation fall to lowest levels in nearly 2 years, Crude struggles, Gold shines, Bitcoin eyes $30k

US stocks are weakening on fears that this week’s banking turmoil will lead to tighter lending standards that will cripple small businesses and eventually send this economy into a recession. The Fed’s rate hiking cycle was already feeling restrictive, so now that we have rising risks of more bank bailouts and even tighter credit standards, the growth outlook for the economy is rather bleak. Next week will be huge as markets are unsure if the Fed will continue to tighten or given this week's ban

17-03-2023 10:58 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close: Stocks rally as bank jitters ease, No surprises from Yellen, ECB hikes, Oil rebounds, profit-taking time for gold, Bitcoin edges higher

US stocks are rallying as Wall Street worries over the banking sector are easing after the big banks offer support to First Republic and as the SNB gave Credit Suisse a lifeline. Banking jitters are fading quickly for now and that has everyone scrambling back into risky assets. Yellen Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Senate did not yield any surprises. She defended the proposed budget and reiterated that there will be a careful look at what happened with SVB.

16-03-2023 13:52 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks: all news & analysis