Risk-on “TACO” redux: Intraday outlook on Nasdaq 100, DJIA, AUD/USD and Gold

• A surprise US-Iran interim agreement has triggered a powerful risk-on rally, with Nasdaq 100 futures surging 3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 2% as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
• Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold have all posted bullish gap-ups, but their advances remain vulnerable to reversal if key support levels fail, particularly given the absence of a signed agreement and published deal details.
• Several hidden risks remain unresolved, including sanctions relief terms, Iran’s proposed transit fees for Hormuz shipping, and the possibility of unilateral Israeli military actions that could rapidly derail the current optimism and trigger renewed market volatility.

A remarkable turn of events, the announcement of an interim agreement between the US and Iran in today’s early Asia session (Monday, 15 June) to end hostilities and reopen the vital energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a massive spark of risk-on behaviour in global markets.

US President Trump has already posted “teasers” on his social media since last Friday, 12 June, despite Iran not confirming that an imminent deal will be signed on Sunday. Interestingly, this interim deal materialised after Trump backed down on his “harsh threat” to attack Iran on the last Thursday, giving rise to the “Trump always chickens out-TACO” trade narrative.

The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged a tremendous gap up today, rallying by 2% and 3%, respectively, and almost erased 90% of the losses inflicted by the prior 2-week minor corrective decline from their respective all-time highs printed at the start of June 2026 to the 11 June 2026 low.

Let’s look at the intraday technical charts of several key instruments that benefit from this raging near-term bullish sentiment before we tackle the “hidden risks”.

The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bullish gap up in today’s opening session and reintegrated back above the 20-day moving average, which suggests the emergence of a minor bullish trend from the 10 June 2026 low (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) for a further potential push up towards 30,530 and the current all-time high area of 30,728/795. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,125 (Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 29,700 invalidates the bullish tone, and a bull trap is likely to materialise, leading to a drop back towards 29,000 and even 28,280 (also the 50-day moving average).

The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures) has traded back above the 20-day moving average since last Friday, 12 June.

Today’s Asia opening session, bullish gap-up, has reinforced an ongoing minor bullish trend launched from the recent 11 June 2026 low.

Watch the 51,390/235 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the current all-time high of 51,778 targets the next intermediate resistances at 52,044, followed by 52,357/410 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).

However, a breakdown with an hourly close below 51,235 negates the bullish tone for a drop to retest the next intermediate support at 50,820 (also close to the 20-day moving average).

The risk-on proxy, the Aussie dollar, has benefited from the intraday recovery in global stock markets today.

The AUD/USD has been oscillating within a potential medium-term downtrend since the 13 May 2026 high, as price action continues to trade below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

However, today’s intraday bullish price action and the bullish momentum conditions seen on the hourly RSI (a series of higher lows after a bullish divergence condition on last Wednesday, 10 June) have kick-started a potential minor corrective rebound sequence for the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).

Watch the 0.7055 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push-up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.7100 and 0.7120/7140 (also the 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from the 29 May 2026 high to 11 June 2026 low).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 0.7055 invalidates the corrective rebound sequence and puts the onus back on the bears to retest 0.7030 and 0.6980.

The medium-term downtrend in Gold (XAU/USD) has been in place since the all-time high on 29 January 2026 and remains intact.

Price actions continue to trade below the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The current bullish move is likely to be an extension of the minor correction rebound from the recent 11 June 2026 low at 4,024 (see Fig. 4).

Watch the 4,243/220 short-term pivotal support (today’s Asia opening session gap up) to maintain the corrective rebound sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistance at 4,373/394 before 4,432/466 (also the key 200-day moving average).

On the other hand, a breakdown and an hourly close below 4,220 invalidate the minor corrective rebound sequence, turning the focus back to the bears for a drop to retest 4,171 and 4,107 in the first step.

Now, here are the hidden risks that can derail the current bout of risk-on behaviour.

No released text: The single biggest warning flag is that no official text has been released. Iran maintains that nothing will be published until the ink dries on Friday, 19 June, which is supposed to be the official signing of the interim peace-deal agreement in Switzerland.

The Toll dispute: There is a blatant public mismatch in rhetoric. Trump forcefully stated on social media and to The New York Times that the Strait of Hormuz will be a “toll-free" opening. Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and state media have indicated that, while they support the opening, Iran still intends to charge service and transit fees to vessels.

Sanctions specifics: We don’t know the exact scope of the sanctions’ relief. Is the US allowing unrestricted crude flows, or is it a tightly capped waiver system subject to good behaviour during the 60-day nuclear talks?

The Israel wildcard: Hours before the peace-deal announcement, Israel launched highly disruptive airstrikes on Beirut. Far-right members of Isreal PM Netanyahu’s cabinet have already openly slammed the US-Iran deal. Because Israel is not a signatory to this MOU, it retains total operational freedom. A unilateral Israeli strike on Iranian domestic assets or a refusal to halt the Lebanon campaign would instantly trigger a collapse of the permanent ceasefire.