NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Preview: High stakes for the AI standard-bearer

• Analysts project Q4 revenue of $65.6B–$65.7B and EPS of $1.50–$1.52, with next-quarter guidance (expected at $71.7B) being the primary catalyst for the stock.
• Markets focus is primarily on the supply/production timeline of the next-generation Blackwell chips and the potential "transitory" pressure on the 75% adjusted gross margin due to the ramp-up.
• With a significant influence on global indices and contributing 15% to the total market return over the last year, NVIDIA's results are a barometer for the entire tech sector.

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The chip giant, NVIDIA (NVDA), will report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25 after the market closes.

As the primary engine of the artificial intelligence revolution, the company’s results have become a barometer for the entire tech sector. However, after months of sideways price action, the market’s focus has shifted from simple "beats" to the long-term sustainability of AI capital expenditures.

The current valuation and market influence of NVIDIA have reached a zenith that dictates the direction of global indices. With an outsized weighting of nearly 8% in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and 7% in the Morningstar US Market Index, the corporation's performance has become synonymous with the health of the technology sector.

In the last twelve months alone, NVIDIA contributed 15% of the total market return, a level of concentration that presents both a testament to its success and a systemic risk to the broader equity landscape.

Analysts have set an aggressive bar for NVIDIA this quarter, though the company’s history of "beat and raise" reports suggests the "whisper numbers" are even higher.

Revenue: Consensus estimates sit at $65.6 billion to $65.7 billion, representing a roughly 67% increase year-over-year.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts expect $1.50 to $1.52, up significantly from the $0.89 reported in the same period last year.

Next-Quarter Guidance: Morningstar and Forex.com emphasize that guidance for the April quarter (expected around $71.7 billion) will likely be the stock’s primary mover.

The Blackwell Production Ramp

The transition to the next-generation Blackwell chips is the most critical narrative. Demand is essentially "unlimited," so the focus shifts to supply. Investors will look for commentary on production yields, shipping timelines, and any potential bottlenecks in the CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) packaging process. Any indication that Blackwell is shipping ahead of schedule could trigger a bullish breakout.

Data Center Diversity and Hyperscaler Spending

While the "Big Four" (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft) continue to pour billions into AI infrastructure, there are growing fears of "digestion", a period where these giants slow spending to integrate existing capacity. Investors will scrutinize whether NVIDIA’s growth is becoming more broad-based, reaching "sovereign AI" (national governments) and smaller enterprises, which would mitigate the risk of a slowdown in mega-cap spending.

Gross Margin Trajectory

Management has guided for an adjusted gross margin of approximately 75%. Investors will watch if the costs associated with the Blackwell ramp-up create "transitory" pressure on these margins. A structural dip below 75% could signal that the era of peak pricing power is beginning to normalize, potentially weighing on the stock’s premium valuation.

The Geopolitical and Regulatory Landscape

Commentary regarding China remains a wildcard. NVIDIA has been navigating U.S. export restrictions by developing region-specific chips like the H20. Any updates on regulatory approvals for newer models or the recovery of market share in China will be closely monitored.

Despite the fundamental strength, NVDA stock has been consolidating in a tight range between $170 and $195 for nearly six months. This "sideways" movement suggests a stalemate between bulls who see further AI expansion and bears who fear a cyclical peak.

The Bull Case: If NVIDIA beats on the top and bottom lines and provides a robust Blackwell-driven outlook, it could break above the $195–$200 resistance level, potentially retesting all-time highs near $210. This would likely ignite a "halo effect" across the broader semiconductor sector (AMD, TSMC) and the S&P 500.

The Bear Case: The "bar keeps getting higher." If management provides conservative guidance or hints at supply chain constraints lasting through 2026, the stock could test support at $170. A break below this level could lead to a deeper pullback toward the $145–$150 range as the "AI bubble" narrative gains traction.

NVIDIA (NVDA) Daily Chart, February 24, 2026

For NVIDIA, "good" may no longer be good enough. With options pricing suggesting a move of roughly +/- 5.5%, the market is braced for volatility. Investors should look past the headline EPS and focus on the Blackwell delivery schedule and gross margin stability. These factors will determine if NVIDIA can revive the "AI trade" or if the market will continue to rotate into value-oriented sectors.

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