North American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

With the US government finally reopening its doors, markets are bracing for an immediate data deluge after months of flying blind.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scrambling to clear the backlog, with the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) set to drop tomorrow, Thursday the 20th, followed by the release of PPI data on the 25th.

Adding to the high-stakes environment, weekly jobless claims are also making a comeback tomorrow morning.

While this influx of information is a gift to a Federal Reserve starved for clarity, it injects a fresh dose of anxiety into the market: will the data validate the "soft landing" or reveal deeper cracks?

Traders are left questioning if a December rate cut is really still on the table given the new uncertainty – The freshly released FOMC Minutes might just have given an answer to that, saying that "it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year." You can access the report right here.

Speaking of anxiety, the broader market is struggling to find its footing.

The AI boom appears to be getting out of breath, and renewed hawkish commentary from Fed officials is putting a firm lid on ecstatic risk-asset rallies.

On the geopolitical stage, the US President is "playing chess" again, with mediators actively trying to arrange a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war—potentially involving high-stakes meetings—which has triggered aggressive moves in commodities and fueled further confidence in the US Dollar.

The Greenback is loving the chaos, pushing back towards the psychological 100.00 level, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is also managing to get back on track.

The emerging narrative of 2025 flows changing could indeed be a booster for North American currencies, but the final verdict will heavily depend on the reality revealed by upcoming data releases.

In any case, let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USD/CAD and DXY charts.

The TSX is probably the only Stock Market holding tight with the ongoing profit-taking everywhere else.

European stocks are doing worst than the US, on a relative note, but the mood hasn't been to prolific for risk-assets. Still, keep an eye on some ongoing dip-buying.

The US Dollar is catching strong momentum higher from the hawkish repricings and the FOMC Minutes – The December meeting should now priced out completely.

Bulls will still have to break the early November highs at 100.376 but after this, there is no clear resistance before the 101.00 psychological level.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone
• 100.376 November highs
• Top of channel and psychological level at 101.00

Support Levels

• 99.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivot
• Higher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 - Acting as Support
• Mini-support 98.50
• Main support 98.00

The Dollar is back on top, beating all other currencies on the way (except for the CAD, against which it is virtually unchanged).

Look at the strong run against the yen. Some momentum is going through in USD/JPY, now breaking 156.00.

The Canadian Dollar is catching up on the past few months of bad performance.

Some 2025 positions are unrolling, but more particularly, North American currencies are seeing a boost throughout with cuts now pricing out in both the US and Canada, which brings back quite some demand for their under-positioned currencies.

USD/CAD has been holding quite a volatile range, with both currencies going back and forth throughout the past week.

The pair reached some new monthly lows just last session, but the wave is coming back towards USD demand as the hawkish move pulls everything out of its way.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• Liberation Day level around 1.4050
• Cycle highs 1.4143
• Current Resistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145
• Key resistance 1.4250

Support Levels

• Liberation Day level around 1.4050
• Major Daily Support 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)
• 1.38 Major support +/- 150 pips
• August range support 1.3750
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

The rest of the week brings some long-awaited US data once again.

Thursday starts with a new round of heavy U.S. labor numbers : average hourly earnings, weekly hours, jobless claims, participation, unemployment, and the release of the September NFP print—all landing together and likely to spark volatility.

Housing is also in play with existing home sales at 10:00 A.M. followed by several Fed speakers through the afternoon.

Friday shifts the spotlight to Canada’s Retail Sales, with both headline and ex-autos expected to contract.

In the U.S., the closing session is dominated by sentiment and PMI indicators, including S&P Global composite, manufacturing, and services readings, plus the full University of Michigan inflation revisions.

Expect Multiple Fed appearances to round out the morning, making this a dense, market-moving finish to the week.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier