Nasdaq 100: 8% sell-off damages medium-term uptrend, potential multi-week corrective decline ahead

• US equities suffered a sharp reversal, with major indices wiping out strong intraday gains and closing deeply in the red, marking the sharpest swing since April’s tariff shock.
• Nvidia’s failed post-earnings rally was the main catalyst, reversing from a 5% intraday surge to a 3.2% loss and erasing nearly $400 billion in market cap, triggering negative reflexivity across the Nasdaq 100.
• Technical conditions point to growing downside risk, with Nasdaq 100 market breadth deteriorating and Nvidia’s bearish setup threatening to drag the index into a deeper medium-term downtrend.

The US stock market delivered a dramatic reversal on Thursday, 20 November 2025, its sharpest swing since April’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs shock.

Bearish movements were observed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, where both initially rose by 2% and 2.4%, respectively, before all gains were wiped out, ending the US session with losses of 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%) and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.8%) were not spared from the rout.

The main bearish trigger was the evaporation of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bellwether, Nvidia’s ex-post earnings share price gains, where it rallied by 5% intraday before a wave of relentless selling took place at mid-US session yesterday. Nvidia ended Thursday’s US session with a loss of 3.2%, wiping out almost $400 billion in market capitalization from its intraday high.

Let’s now focus on the latest technical elements to decipher the medium-term trend (1 to 3 weeks) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100.

Nvidia, being the AI juggernaut and the world’s most valuable company in terms of market capitalization, will have a significant impact on the movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the entire global equities universe via the sentiment feedback loop effect.

Even though the current price actions of Nvidia are still holding at the 177.70 key medium-term pivotal support, the ex-post earnings price reaction has shaped a daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick (a long body that has a wide trading range and closed near its session low), which suggests that the 177.70 key medium-term support is vulnerable to a bearish breakdown (see Fig.1)

Also, based on the prior Q4 2024 earnings release on 26 February 2025, Nvidia has shaped a similar daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern that led to a price decline of 31% in the next 26 days (see Fig. 2).

Hence, Nvidia now faces a technical deterioration that is likely to trigger further weakness in the Nasdaq 100.

The Nasdaq 100 remains above its 200-day moving average, which continues to serve as a key long-term pivotal support at 22,250.

However, market breadth has weakened sharply. The share of Nasdaq 100 constituents trading above their 200-day moving averages plunged from 50% on 12 November 2025 to just 28% by Thursday, 20 November 2025 (see Fig. 3).

It has not reached the “bullish capitulation” zone of 13%/4% which suggests the Nasdaq 100 may have further room to decline at this juncture.

The price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures) have dropped by around 8% from its current all-time high of 26,288 printed on 30 October 2025.

Failure to hold above the 50-day moving average after a reintegration above it on Thursday, 20 November 2025, on an intraday basis invalidates a bullish reversal scenario.

In addition, the 4-hour MACD trend indicator has continued to trend downwards steadily below its centreline, which reinforces a medium-term downtrend phase.

Watch the 25,290 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) for another leg of potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 23,455 and 22,990 (also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 22 April 2025 low to the current all-time high of 30 October 2025).

A break below 22,900 may see a further decline to test the 22,250 key long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).

A clearance above 25,290 key resistance negates the bearish tone to see a potential push up to retest 25,745. Only a breakout with a daily close above 25,745 kickstarts a potential brand new bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the current all-time high of 26,288, followed by the next medium-term resistance at 26,480/26,545.