JPMorgan Q3 earnings preview: Can strong banking momentum continue?

• JPM faces a high Q3 bar: Investors will focus on whether strong NII, trading and investment banking momentum can continue after an exceptional Q2.
• NII, Markets and credit are key: Resilient NII and deal activity could support earnings, while rising credit costs remain the main downside risk.
• 323.00/315.70 is key support: Holding it keeps a bullish reversal in play; a break above 351.55 could reopen the path towards the 366.50 record high.

Ahead of next Tuesday’s Q3 2026 earnings on 13 October, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) remains the key bellwether for U.S. banking risk appetite. It will release its financial report card at around 7:00 a.m. ET, followed by its earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The stock’s reaction will likely hinge on whether the bank can show that Q2’s strong profitability, trading revenue and investment banking momentum were not peak-cycle conditions.

Based on Google Finance estimates for JPM’s Q3 earnings results, the consensus is for earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.91 and revenue of US$51.15 billion. Options markets data as of 5 October are pricing roughly a ±4.4% earnings move, above JPM’s 10-year average peak earnings-day move of ±3.4%, so the market is expecting a bigger-than-normal reaction.

The bar is high because Q2 was exceptionally strong, with JPM reporting US$21.2 billion in net income, US$7.70 in EPS, US$58.0 billion in managed revenue, 29% Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE), and a 14.1% standardised Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio. Excluding significant items, EPS was US$6.14, and ROTCE was 23%.

The first key focus is net interest income (NII). JPMorgan’s core banking engine remains supported by higher-for-longer interest rates, resilient deposit balances and stronger card/wholesale loan activity.

NII was US$25.6 billion in Q2, up 10% year on year, while NII excluding Markets was US$23.7 billion, up 4% year on year.

A stable or better-than-expected NII print would reinforce the bank’s earnings floor and support its premium valuation. However, any sign of margin pressure from rising deposit costs or weaker loan growth could weigh on the stock.

The second major driver is investment banking fees. Q2 investment banking fees for JPM rose 30% year on year, with equity underwriting up 78%, advisory fees up 20%, and debt underwriting fees up 19%.

Traders will watch whether M&A advisory, IPO activity, and debt/equity underwriting continue to recover after a strong Q2, during which Reuters reported that Q2 was boosted by IPO activity, including SpaceX’s trillion-dollar listing, and major dealmaking such as the NextEra-Dominion transaction.

A firm deal pipeline would signal that corporate confidence is improving and that the Wall Street fee cycle is reopening.

Softer backlog commentary, however, would raise the risk that Q2 was a one-off spike rather than the start of a sustained capital-markets recovery.

Global Markets’ revenue will be another important swing factor. Q2 Markets revenue was US$12.1 billion, up 35% year on year, driven by Equity Markets revenue up 86% and Fixed Income Markets revenue up 6%.

Elevated cross-asset volatility, shifting Fed expectations and active equity markets should support client activity across Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) and equities trading. A strong Global Markets print would help offset any softness in traditional banking or advisory revenue.

But if trading momentum slows sharply, the market may start to question whether JPM’s recent earnings strength is losing pace.

Credit quality is the main downside risk; Q2 credit costs were US$2.5 billion, including US$2.4 billion of net charge-offs and a US$149 million reserve build.

Investors will focus on card charge-offs, reserve builds, commercial real estate exposure and broader consumer resilience. Stable credit costs would support the soft-landing narrative for banks.

A larger reserve build or rising consumer delinquencies would be negative, as it would shift attention from earnings upside to late-cycle credit deterioration.

Expense discipline also matters. Q2 expense was US$27.3 billion, up 15% year on year, driven by compensation, front-office headcount, brokerage/distribution fees, marketing, technology and occupancy costs.

JPMorgan can absorb higher compensation, technology and front-office costs if revenue momentum remains strong. But if expenses rise while trading or investment banking revenue slows, operating leverage will deteriorate, capping upside for the stock.

The market is moving into Q3 earnings season with stronger-than-usual earnings momentum. Based on a FactSet Insight report dated 5 October 2026, a record-high 72 S&P 500 companies have issued positive Q3 EPS guidance, exceeding the 5-year average of 42 and the 10-year average of 40.

JPM also reports at a time when rate expectations, rising sovereign bond yields, AI-linked equity volatility and consumer resilience are all in focus. Reuters noted investors are becoming more cautious about whether the U.S. profit boom can continue, even though 2026 earnings growth remains strong.

Hence, higher-for-longer rates can boost the bank’s NII but also increase credit risk and pressure valuations. For JPM, the best macro mix is firm loan growth, stable deposits, resilient consumers, active deal markets and no sharp deterioration in credit.

Overall, the bull case for JPMorgan is a clean earnings beat driven by resilient NII, strong Global Markets revenue, improving investment banking fees, stable credit costs and continued capital returns.

The bear case is not necessarily a bad quarter, but rather a “good but slowing” quarter in which Q2’s record momentum fades.

JPMorgan is still the benchmark U.S. bank, but next Tuesday’s results need to prove that profitability, capital-markets activity and credit quality remain strong enough to justify its premium valuation.

Let’s now decipher the multi-week outlook of JPM from a technical analysis lens.

The major uptrend phase of JPM remains intact, as current price action has traded above the major ascending channel support in place since the 7 April 2025 low of 202.16 and the key 200-day moving average.

The recent corrective decline of 11% (high to low) from the current all-time high of 366.50 printed on 13 August 2026 to the 1 October 2026 low of 325.87 has managed to stall right above the major ascending channel support and 200-day moving average, as well as retraced 61.8% of its prior medium-term bullish impulsive up move sequence from the 20 May 2026 low to the 13 August 2026 all-time high.

The daily RSI momentum indicator has reached 31.62 on 30 September 2026, close to its oversold zone (below the 30 level) and to the level of 31.47 printed on 12 March 2026, which triggered a prior medium-term bullish reversal in JPM.

These observations suggest a potential fresh multi-term bullish reversal scenario for JPM if the 323.00/315.70 key medium-term pivotal support holds.

A clearance above the 351.55 potential upside trigger level (also the 50-day moving average acting as a resistance) may see a retest on the current all-time high of 366.50 in the first step before the next medium-term resistances come in at 379.66/381.53 and 394.68 (Fibonacci extension clusters and upper boundary of the major ascending channel).

On the other hand, a break and a daily close below 315.70 would invalidate the recovery scenario, exposing the next medium-term supports at 293.94 and 280.00.