GBPUSD Highs Unwound as UK Jobs Disappoint

The morning session in Forex is a quiet one with only the UK Jobs report that was released overnight.

The Data for the United Kingdom, release at 2:00 A.M. E.T. came out weak and GBPUSD has started to build a top on the charts.

The Unemployent Rate elevated slightly to 4.6% from 4.5%, with lower average earnings. This release may console the Bank of England towards the continuation of their cut cycle that has started in last August, taking the UK's main policy rate from 5.25% to the current 4.25% with progressive 25bps cuts.

The precise number for the jobs report was 89K with the last release at 112K.

We will dive into a technical analysis for GBPUSD starting from the daily and going towards the hourly timeframes.

GBPUSD has been in a steady uptrend since the beginning of 2025, marking a V-shaped recovery after a sustained downtrend in the latter part of 2024.

The pair recently broke above its 2024 highs (1.34320) as the Bank of England (BoE) remained hesitant to cut rates, citing persistent inflation and robust employment figures. However, these economic indicators have just begun to show initial signs of weakness.

We are currently observing the pair's price action within its ascending channel. While consolidating above the 2024 highs, this consolidation is now exhibiting some bearish tendencies. On closer timeframes, upward momentum appears to be waning, and we will be monitoring for potential catalysts or support levels that could lead to a correction.

The forex pair has started to form what looks like a top after establishing new highs last Thursday right before the US NFP beat at 1.36170.

Since, prices have been consolidating with the MA 50 starting to act as resistance to further continuation - The RSI also moved towards selling momentum but still in a neutral zone.

A break above the 4H MA 50 would point towards the immediate Resistance 1.36 zone and a further breakout towards the 1.37 psychological zone.

In the meantime, prices seem to be heading towards the 1.34 Support Zone which appears in confluence with the 2024 highs and the 4H MA 200, which tends to magnet prices on retracements.

A further breakdown will point towards the Support 2 at 1.3260 to 1.3280, and then we will be looking at the lows of the Ascending Channel in confluence with S3 located just around the 1.32 Psychological Zone.

Both Key hourly moving averages 50 and 200 are now acting as immediate resistance after prices bounced from the resistance zone at the end of last week.

Any particular weakness in the US Dollar may influence the thesis, however the establishment of a downward trendline and the pressure from the key MAs lead toward a more bearish outlook for the currency pair – at least for the time being.

Keep in check any communication regarding the stance of BoE speakers to see if they point towards a continuation of their cut cycle after the weak Jobs report - the upcoming Bank of England Policy Rate decision is due on June 19th, right after the Federal Reserve meeting on the 18th.

Safe Trades!