The Fed is keeping rates unchanged at the 3.50% to 3.75% range – The stance was surprisingly not so hawkish!
The votes for the pause are at 11-1 – Only Miran dissented.
The rougher part for Markets is the fact that rates are not priced to move much throughout the year.
You can get access to the detailed report and Fed Statement right here.
The Statement made mentions to uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East, a solid US economy and low Job gains but stable Unemployment rate.
Regarding inflation, the Fed's stance wasn't so hawkish compared to what it could have been.
Notable quotes from the Statement – Source: Federal Reserve
Dot Plot
March Meeting Projections– Source: Federal Reserve
The Fed projected a slightly more elevated inflation in 2026, with the War affecting expectations.
For the rest, the FOMC is not expecting much change in the Unemployment Rate – This opens the way for dovish repricing in the event of large misses in NFP.
March Meeting Dot Plot – Source: Federal Reserve
The Dot Plot has largely restrained around the 3.5% to 4% range for 2026, indicating that Rate cuts are really far gone.
Only material changes to Employment or economic performance will bring changes to such pricing.
Current Press Conference Asset Board (15:08) – Courtesy of Finviz
WTI and Brent particularly is rebounding from the latest announcement that Trump would most likely stop defending the Strait of Hormuz to force Allies to intervene.
Stock Markets are now getting hit by another wave of Dollar + Oil explosion, an explosive cocktail.
Fed's Powell just ended his conference – You can access his speech right here.
The Fed Chair has been relatively neutral but maybe too neutral for those expecting better news regarding Cuts – No indication of cuts, participants could be soothed by the fact that he didn't mention hikes.
The overall reaction is for now hawkish. The Curve is flattening.
Market Reactions
Dollar is now exploding higher (15:13)
US Dollar (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026
The US Dollar is now rising from the confirmed assumption that Fed Rate cuts are now fading away – Also coinciding with another rise in Oil, other assets are taking a hit.
Watch whether the rally extends and closes above 100.00 for the Dollar Index.
US Stocks struggled, staying flat
Dow Jones (CFD) 15m Chart (15:18) – Source: TradingView
Gold is now below $5,000
Gold (CFD) 15m Chart (15:23) – Source: TradingView
Other metals are also struggling
Metals performance (15:24) – Courtesy of Finviz
Bitcoin and Cryptos are struggling
Bitcoin(CFD) 1H Chart (15:26) – Source: TradingView
Keep a close eye on post-speech flows which can be quite sudden – This session's close in Stock Market will be of huge importance.
Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!
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