Cryptos: All News & Analysis

Yields rise alongside dollar; Tech leads the charge higher as stocks rebound from 2-week lows

US 10-year tips yield rise to the highest levels since 2009 NY Fed near-term inflation falls to lowest levels since 2021 Nasdaq rebounds as AI trade returns Summer trading and some choppiness has helped the US dollar continue to rally as rates remain volatile. It has not been a smooth ride for the dollar as investors weigh concerns on rising debt levels, cooling inflation expectations, and rising confidence that the Fed will cut rates next year. What is fascinating is that the 10-year TIPS yi

14-08-2023 15:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - A busy week ahead! FOMC minutes, US retail sales, UK Jobs/CPI, RBNZ Decides and Japan GDP/CPI

US With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate. The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day. Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and t

11-08-2023 15:12 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD finds support after Fed's Harker suggests rate hikes might be over

Fed rate hike odds stumble (Sept at 13.0% of a hike, November at 20.2%) Fed's Harker will may be at a point where it can hold rates steady Fed's Barkin notes inflation remains too high Risk aversion was providing the dollar with some momentum but that move might have been exhausted after Fed's Harker signaled they could be done raising rates. Harker noted, "Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady

08-08-2023 09:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Will US core CPI stay at the lowest levels since 2021?

Everyone will be watching the US inflation report as a cool report could help support soft landing hopes and seal the deal for some that the Fed is done raising rates. Expectations for the July inflation report is for headline inflation to rise towards the mid-3% range, while core inflation remains steady and holding onto the lowest levels since 2021 on both a monthly basis at 0.2% and at 4.8% from a year ago.

04-08-2023 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Strong USD sends gold to a 3-week low

Crude prices rally after Saudis signal output cuts can be extended or deepened Gold struggles as bond market selloff extends; 10-year Treasury rises 11.4bps to 4.191% Bitcoin's tight range narrows to $28,900 to $30,100 Oil Crude prices rallied after the Saudis did what everyone expected them to do, they extended output cuts. The Saudis are doing whatever it takes to defend oil prices and that could mean we could be seeing $90 oil soon. The only thing getting in oil’s way is a weakening global

03-08-2023 15:35 GMT by Edward Moya

King Dollar returns and takes down Commodities and their Currencies

USD surges as 10-year Treasury rises 4.4bps to 4.067%, highest level since November Oil unable to rally after US crude stockpiles dropped by a record 17 million barrels last week Gold slumps after hot ADP report keeps markets divided on whether Fed will tighten again AUD/USD, NZD, USD, and USD/CAD are all seeing a tentative return of the king dollar trade. The dollar is rallying on safe-haven flows following Fitch's US sovereign rating downgrade. The surge in Treasury yields is also supportin

02-08-2023 14:01 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD and Commodities decline as Dollar rally resumes

Traders push back RBA rate hike bets until November WTI and Brent crude implied volatility falls to lowest since 2020 Turkey unloads significant portion of gold holdings The Australian dollar tumbled after the RBA kept rates on hold again and signaled they might be done tightening. Given most economists expected a hike, aussie-dollar was ripe for a plunge. US dollar strength also supported the decline after the Treasury increased their net borrowing estimate. Oil The oil price rally is re

01-08-2023 15:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil and loonie flying high together again

Oil poised for best monthly performance since early 2022 Net-long positions in WTI rise to highest levels in 3 months Goldman says global oil demand has surpassed peak set just before COVID-19 USD/CAD Canadian dollar Oil and the loonie are flying high again as global growth prospects improve and on optimism the Fed is done tightening. The Canadian dollar was weakening last week on fears that the BOC's tightening cycle is starting to weigh on the economy. That outlook might change if China

31-07-2023 13:27 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil rally stalls as demand softens, Gold rises post Fed

EIA Report: stockpiles dropped 600K vs -2.12M eyed Crude production falls to 12.2 million bpd (lower boundaries of this year's range) Gold struggles as Fed leaves door open for more hikes Oil Crude prices softened after the EIA crude oil inventory report stockpiles fell less-than-expected as surging gasoline prices weighed on demand. Gas is almost over 10 cents a gallon according to AAA and that rising trend might continue going to the end of summer. Crude exports also rose above the 4 milli

26-07-2023 15:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil reaches 3-month high, Gold and Bitcoin edge lower

Oil Crude prices are tentatively breaking out as expectations remain for the oil market to remain tight despite all global weakness that is emerging. The rally in crude oil is impressive as it occurs as Europe is looking very weak right now, the US is slowing down, and China’s Politburo isn’t expected to unveil major stimulus this week. Oil is also getting a boost from Wall Street as optimism grows the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign appears it could be here. With Europe lagging by a c

24-07-2023 14:29 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD and USD/JPY in focus post flash PMIs; Bitcoin falls below $29.5k

It was surprisingly a busy weekend as Spain delivered a close national election, Barbie showed us the economy is still partying, Chevron reported impressive earnings, and as expectations turn downbeat for China to deliver significant stimulus this week. Despite all the headlines, overnight both S&P 500 futures and the dollar were mostly little changed until the release of the flash PMIs. EUR/USD tumbles after weak eurozone PMI data The euro declined below the 1.1120 level against the dollar aft

24-07-2023 10:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Bracing for next week's earnings, rate decisions, and major economic data

US The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringing the target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting. The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September. The economic data has been mixed (str

21-07-2023 14:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil rally capped, Gold finds its pre-FOMC decision range, RFK Jr talks Bitcoin

EIA Report showed Cushing stockpiles declined most since October 2021 Fed rate cut bets for December 13th FOMC meeting rise to 24.0% Bitcoin bulls nervous a US ETF launch could trigger a similar Bitcoin futures collapse Oil Crude prices tentatively rose but gains were capped as Russian exports are expected to rise and as the EIA report posted disappointing demand figures. Oil was steadily rising over the past few weeks on expectations that Russia and the Saudis would keep this market tight. Ru

19-07-2023 14:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold rises post ECB's Klot comment and Canadian CPI report

ECB's Knot (hawk) noted that for July I think it is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty Canadian headline CPI was 2.8%, versus 3% expected, which should allow the BOC to keep rates on hold Global crypto market cap hovers around $1.2 trillion Oil Crude prices are steadying here on expectations that the oil market will remain tight as Russian shipments drop and as China prepares to provide more support to households.

18-07-2023 10:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil tentatively lower on disappointing Chinese data

Goldman Sachs eyes a significant crude deficit in the second half of the year Markets price in 25% chance Fed cuts at December 13th FOMC meeting Bitcoin supporter Novogratz expects Bitcoin ETF gets done by end of year Oil Crude prices are lower as China’s economic recovery stalled and as Libya resumed production at key oil fields. Oil won’t catch a bid unless China finally unleashes meaningful stimulus that propels large parts of the economy. Little rate cuts here and there and support for p

17-07-2023 13:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil weakens on weaker global growth outlook, Gold and Bitcoin unfazed

Commodities get little support from a weaker dollar Demand destruction likely to force Saudis to extend cuts Bitcoin holds onto the $30,000 level Oil Crude prices are weakening as concerns mount that the global growth outlook is getting uglier by the day. China is rushing to deliver more support to their real estate crisis, while the US starts to grow more nervous about a potential recession. Oil will struggle this week if inflation readings in the US support the hawkish case for a couple mor

10-07-2023 13:42 GMT by Edward Moya

Investors risk averse ahead of the US jobs report after worrying ADP Number

It's been a shocking week for European equity markets, on course to shed almost 5% and it could get worse if the US jobs report reflects what we saw yesterday from ADP. You wouldn't always guess it when looking at the performance of stocks but there is mounting anxiety about the resilience of the economy and what that will mean for interest rates going into the end of this year and 2024. Investors always seem to find a way to look on the bright side which may explain the disconnect between econo

07-07-2023 07:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil higher on falling stockpiles and Gold catches a safe-haven bid, Bitcoin awaits ETF ruling

EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report expected at 11am EST. **Note API reported 4.4million draw last night. Fed's rate path remains key for gold traders Bitcoin momentum capped on rising expectations BlackRock will get a US Bitcoin ETF approved Oil Crude prices got a boost after the API report showed stockpiles declined by 4.4 million barrels per day.

06-07-2023 07:37 GMT by Edward Moya

Manufacturing PMIs disappoint once more but services is what central banks are obsessed with

We may be seeing a bit of a trading lull at the start of the week with tomorrow's US bank holiday tempting many into an extended weekend. The economic calendar looks busy but with a large portion being PMI revisions, that doesn't necessarily equate to an abundance of trading activity. The revisions are often small and don't really move the needle in terms of expectations for the economy and, at this moment, interest rates. And then there's the fact that manufacturing being deep in contraction te

03-07-2023 11:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil gets a boost from surprise Russia output cut news but falls on weak ISM report

Saudi Arabia commits to extending voluntary cut of 1 million bpd Russia to reduce oil exports by 500K bpd US Manufacturing Activity drops the most in 3 years Oil The bottom is in place for oil after the Saudis and Russians play nice. The oil market got a boost after the Saudis extended their production cuts and Russia surprised everyone with an export cut announcement of 500,000 bpd. The Saudi extension should have been expected by everyone, but the Russian export cut news did surprise many e

03-07-2023 10:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Cryptos: all news & analysis