Crude Oil (WTI & Brent) keeps playing tricks on Markets 32 days into the Iran War

• WTI and Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis with key levels ahead of the long Easter weekend
• Crude Oil is once again in the center stage after yesterday's Trump address
• Volatility will remain as long as Oil does not correct below $100

President Trump has just finished speaking in yet another public address, boasting that the ongoing conflict is so efficient and revolutionary, and comparing the long-lasting historical conflicts in the United States with the current advancement in objectives.

But Markets don't care anymore. What they want to see is a proper solution for the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite strong reactions to his speeches during the first days of the War, traders and algorithms have progressively stopped reacting to any overly optimistic announcement from the Administration. As a matter of fact, reactions to them are now doing the exact opposite.

After his speech at the White House yesterday, Global Assets began to tumble from a sweep higher in Energy commodities – Crude prices rose in a flash from $100 to $114 (WTI). While Participants were becoming more hopeful that the conflict would end within the early-announced deadlines (5 weeks, then April 6), a more aggressive tone led to a Market-shaking explosion, as the party quickly finished and left a general hangover.

Combine the worsening tone with high-tier catalysts ahead, like tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls (check our preview!), closed Stock Markets (only Futures will be open until 1:30 PM ET), and the potential for an escalation, including a ground invasion over the long weekend, and that was enough of a hit to blow up the tires from the bull-train.

Talk won't be enough to soothe Markets in the long term – Oil is what Smart Money is looking to move their chess pieces in this gigantic geopolitical puzzle.

Hence, let's dive right into an intraday outlook for both WTI and Brent Oil, highlighting their technical levels and outlining scenarios for their breakouts or breakdowns.

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WTI has indeed reached concerning levels after yesterday's address, the second highest since the beginning of the conflict, bouncing on the 4H 50-period Moving Average.

Evolving in two different bull channels, the larger one is less reactive but more concerning, pointing to the potential of another top at $120 if bears fail to correct prices.

The second bull channel, of smaller scale, would see a potential top having already been formed, and would see its bottom at $100 – RSI is forming a bearish divergence which could prompt this smaller channel to hold.

As long as WTI remains above $100, investors won't be able to generate much progress in sentiment. Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls shouldn't have much effect on Oil but the general weekend risk will – Hence, traders will be listening closely to the advancement of the War.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs $113.50 to $114.50 (small channel top)
• 2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)
• Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124

Support Levels

• $106 to $108 June 2022 Pivot
• $98 to $100 Momentum Support & 4H 50-period MA (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $93.00 to $95
• $82.80 to $84 Key Support
• War flows Pivot $65.00 to $66.00

Brent is in a much more contained price action compared to WTI, effectively stuck in a $100 to $116 range since Mid-March.

The range is now consolidating in a tighter trading between $102 to $114 which brings more definite breakout levels.

• Above the mini-range resistance ($111 to $114), expect further Market stress
• Below $100 to $102 however, expect sentiment to rebound swiftly

The worst case scenario is avoided in Markets as long as Brent does not break the War spike at $120 – After this, expect a catastrophic price action and rate hikes pricing to continue.

Brent Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• Range Resistance $111 to $114
• War Highs $117 to $120
• Ukraine War Spike $130 to $135

Support Levels

• $100 - $102 End-March and Range Support
• End-March minor Support $95 to $97
• $88 - $92 March 10 Bounce and 200-MA
• $80 - $82 Key War Support
• Pre-War Gap $75

Keep track of the headlines and watch out for large gaps and sweeps in coming periods (with many players absent for the Easter long weekend).

Safe Trades!

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